Mogadishu (Somalia Today) – A former Puntland minister has questioned whether Türkiye has the technical and financial capacity to develop Somalia’s offshore oil resources alone, warning that commercial production could remain years away despite increasingly optimistic statements from Ankara and Mogadishu.
Ali Haji Warsame, a former Puntland education minister and political analyst, said the operation underway off Somalia’s coast remains an exploratory drilling campaign aimed at determining whether commercially viable oil or gas deposits exist.
He said the public risked confusing the drilling of a test well with the start of commercial production, which would require further appraisal, investment and infrastructure even if the current campaign produced a discovery.
“The public is being given the impression that oil production is close, while the process could still take many years,” Warsame said in a recent interview.
Türkiye’s state-owned Turkish Petroleum Corporation sent the deepwater drillship Çağrı Bey to Somalia in February for Ankara’s first offshore exploration mission outside its own maritime waters.
The operation follows a seven-month seismic survey conducted by the Oruç Reis research vessel after Türkiye announced plans to search for oil and natural gas in three offshore Somali blocks.
Çağrı Bey began work at the Curad-1 well in April. The site lies about 372 kilometres from Mogadishu, and the vessel will drill to a total depth of 7,500 metres, including 4,005 metres beneath the seabed.
According to the Turkish Energy Ministry’s detailed Curad-1 drilling plan, the operation will last about 288 days and involve around 500 personnel working in rotation.
Production ‘unlikely before 2034’
Warsame predicted that Somalia would not begin commercial offshore oil production before 2034, even if Curad-1 confirmed a substantial discovery.
Before production could begin, he said, engineers would need to determine the size and quality of any reservoir, assess whether extraction would be commercially viable and prepare a development plan.
The project could then require billions of dollars in investment for additional wells, production facilities, pipelines or offshore loading infrastructure.
Warsame said Türkiye would probably need to bring in major international oil companies with extensive experience in developing complex deepwater fields.
He offered no detailed evidence that Türkiye could not develop a commercial field independently. Turkish Petroleum operates drilling vessels and has expanded its oil and gas operations at home and abroad.
However, discovering hydrocarbons and developing a producing offshore field are separate stages. Commercial production would depend on the size of any discovery, extraction costs, international oil prices, financing and Somalia’s political and regulatory environment.
Erdogan voices optimism
Warsame’s warning contrasts with upbeat statements from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Somalia’s federal government.
Erdogan said in May that Türkiye expected to complete drilling in Somali waters within six to nine months, provided weather and sea conditions remained favourable.
“The operations we are conducting off the coast of Somalia are historically significant,” Erdogan said during the Istanbul Natural Resources Summit.
“We desire to give the brotherly Somali people, who have been struggling with internal instability and famine for many years, the good news they have been waiting for.”
The drilling will establish what lies beneath the seabed and provide the data needed to determine whether the site contains a commercially recoverable deposit.
Somalia’s Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Dahir Shire Mohamed has said the government expects positive results from the drilling campaign before the end of 2026.
“We are very positive that we will have some positive outcome towards the end of this year,” Mohamed said in May, while declining to estimate the size of any potential reserves.
He said a commercial discovery could attract investment, create jobs and generate government revenue. The partnership would also train Somali personnel and transfer technical expertise, he added.
Dispute over agreement
Warsame also criticised the hydrocarbons agreement signed by Somalia and Türkiye in March 2024, accusing the federal government of failing to explain its implications clearly to the Somali public and national institutions.
The Somalia-Türkiye energy agreement covers the exploration, evaluation, development and production of petroleum in Somali onshore and offshore blocks.
Warsame claimed Türkiye could receive 90 per cent of the benefits from future production, describing the arrangement as opaque and heavily tilted towards Ankara.
The agreement does not simply grant Türkiye 90 per cent of the project’s profits.
Documents published in 2025 showed that the contractor could recover petroleum expenses by retaining crude oil or natural gas worth up to 90 per cent of annual production after the government receives any applicable royalty.
The reported cost-recovery provisions of the agreement have fuelled criticism among Somali politicians and analysts, who argue that high exploration, security and development expenses could delay meaningful revenue for Somalia.
If recoverable costs fall below the ceiling, the unused portion would become profit petroleum. The parties would then divide the remaining production under separate production-sharing agreements.
The published intergovernmental agreement does not specify the final division of profit petroleum, leaving a central part of Somalia’s potential long-term return dependent on subsequent contracts.
Supporters of the deal argue that generous cost-recovery terms are necessary to attract investment into a high-risk frontier market with no established offshore production infrastructure.
Strategic partnership
Türkiye has expanded its presence in Somalia since Erdogan visited famine-stricken Mogadishu in August 2011, a trip widely regarded as a turning point in relations between the two countries.
Ankara has since invested in humanitarian assistance, hospitals, schools, transport infrastructure and security cooperation.
Türkiye also opened its largest overseas military training base in Mogadishu in 2017 and has trained thousands of Somali soldiers.
The two governments increasingly present energy cooperation as another pillar of their broader strategic relationship.
Somalia says the offshore campaign could transform an economy that remains heavily dependent on livestock exports, remittances and international assistance.
But Curad-1 remains an exploration well, and neither government has confirmed the discovery of commercially recoverable oil or gas reserves.
