Washington (Somalia Today) — A US think tank has urged President Donald Trump not to recognise Somaliland, warning that such a move could destabilise Somalia, strengthen Al-Shabaab recruitment and draw Washington deeper into conflict in the Horn of Africa.
The Washington-based Defense Priorities think tank said recognising the self-declared republic would offer the United States few strategic benefits while creating serious political and security risks.
“Recognition would yield almost no benefits for the US but could come with great costs,” said the report, titled Exiting Somalia’s War: End US Military Operations.
Senior fellow William Walldorf wrote the report, which the organisation published on July 14.
The report does not claim that Washington has decided to recognise Somaliland. Instead, it weighs the possible consequences if the Trump administration abandons the United States’ longstanding support for Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and has since built its own government, security forces, currency and institutions.
Its leaders argue that Somaliland deserves recognition because the former British protectorate briefly gained independence in June 1960 before voluntarily uniting with the former Italian-administered territory to establish the Somali Republic.
Israel’s recognition in December 2025 gave Somaliland its first formal diplomatic recognition and raised hopes in Hargeisa that other countries would follow.
Somalia condemned the decision as an unlawful attack on its sovereignty and pledged to use diplomatic, political and legal measures to defend its internationally recognised borders.
Washington did not follow Israel’s decision and later reaffirmed its recognition of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, including Somaliland.
Recruitment warning
Defense Priorities warned that US recognition could inflame nationalist anger in Somalia and hand Al-Shabaab a powerful issue for its propaganda and recruitment campaigns.
“Recognition will fuel long-held Somali nationalistic concerns about foreign encroachment, which in turn will fuel Al-Shabaab recruitment and increase the chances of state collapse in Somalia,” the report said.
It compared the potential fallout with the crisis triggered by a January 2024 memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland.
Under that agreement, landlocked Ethiopia sought access to the Red Sea through Somaliland, while officials in Hargeisa said they expected Addis Ababa eventually to recognise the region’s independence.
Somalia rejected the deal as a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, sparking one of the most serious diplomatic disputes between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa in years.
The report said Al-Shabaab exploited the controversy to portray itself as a defender of Somali sovereignty and national unity.
It cited an assessment that the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement had been “weaponised by Al-Shabaab to generate new recruits” and undermine regional security.
The militant group also used the dispute to present itself as “the defender of Somali nationalism and autonomy”, according to the report.
Defense Priorities argued that American recognition could provoke an even stronger backlash because Washington has played a major military and political role in Somalia for more than two decades.
The United States has carried out air strikes against Al-Shabaab and Islamic State militants, trained Somali troops and maintained a military presence in the country as part of its counterterrorism campaign.
Threat of fragmentation
The think tank also warned that recognition could deepen divisions between Somalia’s federal government and its member states.
It said the move could encourage Puntland and Jubaland to move further away from Mogadishu, potentially weakening the federal system and accelerating the country’s fragmentation.
Such instability could create more room for Al-Shabaab, which controls or contests territory across parts of southern and central Somalia, the report said.
The group has repeatedly exploited political divisions, clan grievances and disputes between the federal government and regional administrations to expand its influence.
Defense Priorities said recognition could also increase the risk of Somalia becoming a failed state, leaving Washington under pressure to devote more resources to stabilising the country.
The think tank argued that the United States could become trapped by its previous investments in Somalia, prompting successive administrations to deepen their involvement rather than withdraw from an unsuccessful strategy.
Regional tensions
The report also warned that US recognition could revive tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, particularly if Addis Ababa followed Washington’s lead.
Ethiopia, a landlocked country of more than 100 million people, has long sought reliable access to ports along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
Somalia insists that any agreement involving its coastline or maritime territory must receive approval from the federal government in Mogadishu.
Defense Priorities said American recognition of Somaliland could increase the risk of direct confrontation between Somalia and Ethiopia.
It could also widen regional tensions involving Egypt, Ethiopia’s longstanding rival, particularly as Cairo has strengthened its political and security relationship with Mogadishu.
The African Union has opposed recognising Somaliland, maintaining that the region remains part of Somalia and warning that unilateral recognition could create a dangerous precedent for separatist movements elsewhere on the continent.
Defense Priorities urged the Trump administration to reject calls for US recognition and avoid becoming further entangled in Somalia’s internal and regional disputes.
“The United States should not recognise Somaliland,” the report said, arguing that the decision would impose significant costs without advancing American security interests.
