Dallas (Somalia Today) — A senior policy official at the George W. Bush Institute has urged the United States to maintain conditional security support for Somalia, warning that an abrupt withdrawal could allow Al-Shabaab to reverse years of international efforts.
Elizabeth Kennedy Trudeau, the institute’s managing director for global policy, said Washington should push Somali leaders to take greater responsibility for their country’s security without prematurely dismantling the international support system that sustains African Union forces.
Her intervention comes as the administration of US President Donald Trump prepares to end American backing for United Nations logistical assistance to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) from 2027.
The comments appeared in an article published by the George W. Bush Presidential Center. They did not amount to a personal statement by former President George W. Bush, but Trudeau’s senior position lends the intervention added weight in the debate over Washington’s future role in Somalia.
No Somalia blank cheque
Trudeau said the United States should avoid choosing between writing Somalia a “blank check” and walking away entirely.
She acknowledged growing frustration in Washington over Somalia’s political divisions, weak institutions and slow progress towards assuming full responsibility for national security.
But she argued that counterterrorism and state-building required a thoughtful and measured approach rather than a sudden end to assistance.
Under her proposed strategy, Washington would continue supporting Somali and African Union forces while tying assistance to clearly defined conditions.
Those conditions would include security-sector reform, financial accountability and a greater Somali contribution to the funding and management of national security institutions.
Trudeau said international assistance should strengthen Somali leadership rather than remain open-ended. Somali authorities, she argued, must gradually finance, manage and sustain their own security operations.
However, she warned that ending support before Somali institutions could operate independently would risk creating a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit.
Washington raises pressure
The United States informed the African Union earlier this month that it would no longer support the UN operation that provides logistical assistance to AUSSOM beyond the end of 2026.
Washington said it would not necessarily oppose a renewal of AUSSOM’s mandate, but would reject any extension that continued the current UN logistical and operational support arrangements.
The African Union mission, which has nearly 12,000 personnel, depends heavily on the United Nations for food, water, fuel, transport, medical assistance and other essential services.
Diplomats have warned that the force may struggle to continue operating unless another organisation or group of donors replaces that support.
A US State Department spokesperson said Washington had contributed nearly $2 billion to the UN support operation and its predecessor but had seen too little progress.
“We should not continue to fund a mission that has not met core objectives,” the spokesperson said.
Washington has accused Somalia’s political leaders of allowing internal disputes to weaken military operations against Al-Shabaab and the smaller Islamic State affiliate active in the country.
The federal government has also struggled to resolve disputes with Puntland and Jubaland, two federal member states that have rejected or distanced themselves from several initiatives led by Mogadishu.
The African Union has similarly warned that divisions between Somalia’s federal and regional leaders complicate the fight against Al-Shabaab.
It has called for structured talks involving the federal government, member states and opposition figures.
Fear of a security vacuum
AUSSOM supports Somali forces fighting Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda-linked group that controls large rural areas in southern and central Somalia.
The militants regularly carry out bombings, assassinations and assaults on military positions, government offices and civilian targets.
AUSSOM replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia in January 2025. The mission aims to help Somali forces gradually assume security responsibilities.
African Union officials have repeatedly appealed for predictable and sustainable funding, warning that financial shortages could weaken operations and place previous security gains at risk.
The AU has also urged international partners not to abandon Somalia before its national forces can independently hold territory recovered from the militants.
Trudeau said Somalia’s position near the Gulf of Aden and major Red Sea shipping routes made its stability important not only to Somalis but also to regional security, global trade and US strategic interests.
She pointed to Somalia’s completion of the international debt-relief process in 2023 as evidence that sustained reform and international engagement could produce results.
That process eliminated about $4.5 billion in debt after Somalia implemented years of financial and economic reforms.
But Trudeau said political fragmentation, weak governance and continued conflict still threatened that progress.
Her central recommendation was that Washington use its financial and diplomatic influence to secure firm commitments from Somali leaders while maintaining enough support to prevent Al-Shabaab from filling any security gap.
A transparent and carefully managed transition, she argued, would cost less than responding after Somalia had fallen into a deeper crisis.
