Mogadishu (Somalia Today) — Somalia’s federal government and opposition leaders opened preliminary talks in Mogadishu on Tuesday, launching a new internationally backed effort to ease a worsening political standoff over elections, constitutional changes and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s mandate.
Turkey and other international partners are facilitating the talks, which brought together officials from Villa Somalia, members of the Somali Future Council and representatives of former president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, better known as Farmaajo.
Tuesday’s meeting focused on setting the formal agenda and rules for later rounds, according to people familiar with the process.
The main dispute is expected to centre on the constitution and the election model, two issues that have driven months of tension between the government and its opponents.
Villa Somalia has insisted that Somalia must move to one-person, one-vote elections, arguing that the clan-based indirect system used in past cycles has entrenched elite bargaining and repeatedly pushed the country towards violence.
“Have there ever been indirect elections that have not resulted in deaths?” Hassan Sheikh said in May, referring to previous election cycles in 2012, 2016, 2021 and 2022.
Election dispute
The opposition says it supports direct voting in principle but rejects what it describes as a unilateral process, shaped by the presidency, without sufficient political consensus.
The Somali Future Council last month endorsed what it called a transitional direct election model, saying it aimed to “overcome the current political deadlock” and produce a vote with “broad agreement, legitimacy and public confidence”.
The proposal seeks to combine direct voting with safeguards for Somalia’s long-standing 4.5 clan power-sharing arrangement during a transitional period.
Its backers present it as a compromise between universal suffrage and fears that a rushed vote could destabilise the country’s fragile federal system.
The government, however, has pressed ahead with its own roadmap after parliament approved constitutional amendments in March that could extend the presidential term by one year and delay planned elections.
Opposition politicians said the move amounted to an attempt to prolong Hassan Sheikh’s rule.
Samira Gaid, an analyst with the Mogadishu-based Balqiis think tank, said after the vote that the amendments’ impact was still open to interpretation.
“The constitutional change doesn’t automatically extend the current president’s term,” she said at the time, adding that the issue remained politically sensitive.
Somalia’s wider constitutional review has been one of the country’s longest state-building projects.
The federal parliament approved the remaining chapters of the provisional constitution on March 4, ending a process that had lasted more than 14 years, although public ratification through a referendum remains pending.
Pressure to compromise
The resumption of talks follows a tense month in Mogadishu. In early June, government troops and militias allied with opposition politicians exchanged fire in parts of the capital ahead of planned protests against Hassan Sheikh.
The government later said it had restored order and accused opposition figures of endangering civilians.
Former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed accused government forces of targeting his home and of “illegally altering the constitution”, while former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire said heavy weapons had been used in a densely populated area.
The United Nations, the African Union and the East African bloc IGAD all urged Somali leaders to resolve the dispute through dialogue after the clashes.
Turkey’s role in the talks reflects Ankara’s growing influence in Somalia.
Turkey has trained Somali forces for years, opened its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu in 2017 and has also acted as a regional mediator, including in the Somalia-Ethiopia dispute that produced the Ankara Declaration in December 2024.
The political crisis comes as Somalia faces mounting security and humanitarian pressure.
The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia, known as AUSSOM, has nearly 12,000 troops and supports Somali forces in the fight against Al-Shabaab.
But its long-term funding remains uncertain after the United States told the African Union it would block continued UN logistical support for the mission from next year, a move officials warned could threaten its survival.
In a note to the African Union, Washington said “internal rivalries and political infighting” were undermining the fight against Al-Shabaab and ISIS.
Those pressures have increased calls from diplomats for a political settlement.
However, it remains unclear whether the Mogadishu talks can bridge the gap between a presidency determined to push direct elections and an opposition demanding a broader national agreement before any vote goes ahead.
