Washington (Somalia Today) — Building American military bases in Somaliland would offer little additional security while increasing the risk of deeper US involvement in conflicts across the Horn of Africa, a Washington think tank has said.
Defense Priorities said the United States already has the military infrastructure it needs in neighbouring Djibouti and does not require new air or naval facilities in Somaliland to confront militants in Somalia, protect Red Sea shipping or compete with China.
“New bases are not worth the additional costs and are strategically unnecessary,” the think tank said in a report published on July 14.
William Walldorf, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities, wrote the report, titled Exiting Somalia’s War: End US Military Operations.
The warning comes amid growing international interest in Somaliland’s strategic position along the Gulf of Aden, opposite Yemen and close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most important maritime routes.
Somaliland has offered the United States access to military facilities and mineral resources as part of its campaign for international recognition.
“We are open to offer military bases to the United States,” Somaliland presidency minister Khadar Hussein Abdi told AFP in February.
Washington has not publicly announced any agreement to establish a military base in the territory.
Djibouti option
Defense Priorities said Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti already provides Washington with a major platform for operations across East Africa, the Red Sea and the Arabian Peninsula.
The base hosts the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa and supports American and allied military missions throughout the region.
“Given limited US strategic interests in Africa, the United States gets all it needs from its nearby base in Djibouti,” the report said.
The think tank warned that new facilities in Somaliland could expose American troops and infrastructure to attacks by militant groups or missiles fired from Yemen.
It also said a large investment in new bases could encourage Washington to expand its military operations to protect those facilities or demonstrate that the strategy was working.
If air strikes launched from Somaliland failed to defeat Islamic State fighters in Puntland, US officials could face pressure to deploy troops on the ground, the report said.
Such investment could create a “sunk cost” problem in which Washington deepens its involvement rather than abandon a failing policy, it added.
Houthi threat
The report also challenged arguments that bases in Somaliland would help the United States confront Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis and protect commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
It said Washington had already mounted a major military campaign against the group without operating from Somaliland.
The central problem, it argued, was not a shortage of bases but the limited ability of air power to destroy militant organisations.
However, renewed tensions in the region have complicated the report’s assessment that the Houthi threat to shipping had largely receded.
The Houthis have announced what they described as a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening vessels travelling through the Bab el-Mandeb as the wider US-Iran conflict escalates.
Saudi Arabia has taken measures to protect its ships, while concerns over possible attacks have driven up maritime insurance costs.
A serious disruption or closure of the narrow waterway could affect Saudi oil exports and wider international trade.
The US Maritime Administration has also maintained a warning for vessels travelling through the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb, the Gulf of Aden and the Somali Basin.
Although the Houthis had not attacked commercial shipping since the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, the advisory said they continued to pose a threat, particularly to vessels linked to the United States, Britain or Israel.
Defense Priorities nevertheless argued that permanent American facilities in Somaliland would not address the causes of the conflict.
Instead, it said, the bases could become prominent targets during future regional confrontations.
China competition
The think tank also rejected claims that a military presence in Somaliland would help Washington counter China’s growing influence in Africa.
China has expanded its trade, investment and infrastructure projects across East Africa and operates its only overseas military base in Djibouti, near Camp Lemonnier.
Defense Priorities said more than two decades of American military expansion across Africa had failed to slow Chinese commercial engagement.
“There is no reason to expect new US bases in Somaliland to work any better at stymying Chinese economic influence,” the report said.
It warned that Beijing could view new American installations in Somaliland as a threat to its regional investments and respond by establishing additional military bases of its own.
Such a response would produce “the exact thing the bases were meant to prevent” — a larger Chinese military presence in Africa, it said.
The report urged Washington to avoid expanding militarily into Somaliland and instead reduce its direct role in Somalia.
It recommended limiting US strikes to rare operations against senior international militant figures, gradually withdrawing American ground forces and relying more heavily on Somalia, the African Union mission and regional partners.
Approving bases in Somaliland, the think tank warned, could transform a limited counterterrorism operation into a larger and more permanent American commitment in the Horn of Africa.
