Burhakaba (Somalia Today) – Rival troop movements in Somalia’s South West State have sharply heightened fears of an imminent armed clash, as the political crisis between the federal government and the regional administration deepens.
The military build-up comes just days after South West State officially cut all ties with Mogadishu on March 17, marking one of the most serious tests of Somalia’s fragile federal order.
Forces opposed to regional leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen have massed in Burhakaba, a district in the Bay region that has emerged as a main fault line in the crisis.
Federal officials, including Somalia’s ambassador to Tanzania, Ilyas Ali Hassan, reportedly paraded allied fighters there, urging them to prepare for operations tied to the struggle over the state’s political future.
Meanwhile, federal authorities have strengthened their presence in the historic coastal town of Barawa, a move widely interpreted as adding pressure on the South West administration.
Federal authorities flew Turkish-trained Haramcad (Cheetah) special police units into the town last week.
On Monday, Haramcad commander Abdihakin Said Eeldheer arrived in Barawa to speed up security operations and inspect the unit’s newly fortified base.
In a direct counter-display of strength, Laftagareen unveiled newly trained regional troops in the Interim capital, Baidoa.
His administration stated the recruits were intended to reinforce regional security as tensions over the electoral dispute deepened.
Observers reported further troop movements towards the Bay region, raising alarms that the three-way military posturing could soon spill over into a wider conflict.
Constitutional rupture
The military build-up follows a dramatic political rupture.
When South West State suspended cooperation with the federal government, regional officials accused Mogadishu of arming local militias and plotting to remove Laftagareen in order to install a compliant regional administration.
The dispute quickly affected commercial aviation links.
Reports emerged that flights to Baidoa, including those carrying Somali lawmakers, faced severe restrictions, though the Somali Civil Aviation Authority dismissed the claims as political propaganda.
The competing narratives underlined the depth of the political fallout.
The immediate trigger for the crisis is a bitter dispute over sweeping constitutional reforms.
Earlier this month, Somalia’s federal parliament approved constitutional changes that effectively replaced the country’s long-standing provisional framework.
Critics and regional leaders argue that the amendments heavily concentrate power in the executive branch.
The reforms notably give the president the authority to appoint a prime minister without parliamentary approval and extend presidential terms from four to five years.
Opponents argue that the federal government pushed the changes through without the broad national consensus required in Somalia’s delicate federal system.
With South West State’s withdrawal, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration now faces open defiance from three of the country’s six federal member states.
Puntland withdrew its recognition of the federal government in March 2024 over similar disputes, and Jubaland severed ties in late 2024 following clashes between federal and regional forces.
Electoral brinkmanship
South West State has made clear that it sees the constitutional dispute not simply as a legal disagreement, but as a direct and existential challenge to its regional autonomy.
On Monday, Laftagareen appointed a nine-member electoral and boundaries commission to oversee regional elections.
The move signalled that Baidoa intends to press ahead with its own political timetable, flatly ignoring federal objections and the rising military pressure around the state.
Mogadishu responded by immediately hardening its stance.
The federal interior ministry declared that Laftagareen’s mandate, and that of his administration, had officially expired.
It said the federal government would no longer recognise any appointments or dismissals made by the current regional leadership, and would instead work directly with local district structures until officials establish a “new legal authority”.
The escalating crisis carries a strong historical irony.
Laftagareen himself came to power in a deeply controversial 2018 regional election.
He secured victory after Somali authorities, backed by Ethiopian troops, violently arrested former Al-Shabaab deputy leader Mukhtar Robow, a popular rival candidate who had defected to the government, a move many saw as an orchestrated attempt by Mogadishu to block Robow’s candidacy.
That 2018 episode triggered days of deadly protests in Baidoa and cleared the way for Laftagareen, whom observers at the time viewed as the central government’s favoured proxy.
Now, the same regional leader finds himself in an open, militarised confrontation with the federal capital.
Al-Shabaab threat looms
South West officials accuse the federal government of trying to weaken Baidoa from within by encouraging rival armed factions in areas such as Burhakaba.
Federal authorities vehemently deny fuelling unrest, insisting they are acting solely to preserve national unity and stabilise the region.
However, the stakes go far beyond elite political manoeuvring.
South West State remains a crucial theatre in the broader war against Al-Shabaab.
The Al-Qaeda-linked militant group still controls vast stretches of the rural countryside and continues to stage deadly attacks in major population centres despite sustained military pressure.
Any prolonged armed confrontation between Mogadishu and South West State risks catastrophically drawing vital security resources away from the counter-insurgency effort.
The timing is especially sensitive as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) continues its phased drawdown, leaving Somali forces to take on greater security responsibilities across the country.
For now, it remains unclear whether the opposing sides see these troop movements mainly as a show of force or as a prelude to wider fighting around Baidoa and Burhakaba.
But with both sides digging in and linking military deployments to competing claims of political legitimacy, Somalia’s constitutional crisis has entered a highly volatile new phase.
