Mogadishu (Somalia Today) — Somali security forces deployed across major roads and opposition strongholds in Mogadishu overnight, raising fears of confrontation ahead of a planned protest against President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s disputed mandate extension.
Troops in battle vehicles took positions on main routes and near neighbourhoods where senior opposition figures have moved in recent days, according to local reports and residents.
The show of force came as former president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed relocated to the Mirinaayo area of Abdulaziz district, near the Lido beachfront, where his Himilo Qaran party plans to open a new office.
Former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire has also moved to Howlwadaag district, while other opposition figures are expected to spread into several parts of the capital, including Seybiyaano and central neighbourhoods, as they prepare for Thursday’s demonstration.
The opposition says the protest will reject what it calls a one-year mandate extension for Mohamud and denounce the displacement of Mogadishu residents linked to government-backed demolitions.
But the government says it wants to prevent violence and protect public order in a city where political protests have often carried the risk of armed confrontation.
‘No weapons’
Mohamed Ahmed Diiriye, known as Yabooh, the deputy governor of Banaadir region for security and politics, said the government had not banned the protest but had set aside three locations where opposition leaders could address supporters.
“The government has not rejected the protest. It has accepted it,” Yabooh told reporters.
“The places where they can gather have been designated. They are three locations. Those are the places where the opposition men are expected to go and address the people who come out.”
He warned that the authorities would not allow armed mobilisation.
“Is a protest with weapons behind it, guarded by guns, really a protest? That is chaos. Do not accept it,” he said.
Yabooh said the authorities would secure former leaders and civilians who take part in the demonstration, but insisted protesters must not carry weapons.
His remarks followed a sharper warning from Ports and Marine Transport Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, known as Jama, who accused opposition figures of trying to disturb security in the capital, especially around public leisure areas such as Lido beach in Abdulaziz district.
He also accused them of links to foreign actors and claimed they wanted to create disorder in return for money.
“The opposition group were told by the foreigners holding their leash that the remaining funds would not be released unless they fired shots in Mogadishu,” Jama said.
“So they brought guns into the city and to the places where people go to relax, starting with Lido beach,” he added.
He then appealed directly to the public.
“My people, what should I call these men?” he said. “How hostile they are. How much they hate the progress of the people of Mogadishu.”
Fears of escalation
Opposition figures have rejected such accusations in previous statements, saying their campaign is political and peaceful. They accuse the government of using security concerns to restrict constitutional rights.
But a source familiar with opposition discussions told Somalia Today that some opposition members privately believe a violent confrontation in Mogadishu could force international partners and senior Hawiye elders to press Mohamud to abandon his political plan.
The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said some figures were quietly pushing for a harder street confrontation, calculating that a security crisis would raise pressure on Villa Somalia.
The calculation would mark a dangerous gamble in a capital still shaped by memories of political violence, armed mobilisation and unresolved disputes over power.
The standoff stems from Somalia’s unresolved row over constitutional changes approved by parliament in March.
The amendments could extend presidential and parliamentary terms from four years to five and push federal elections to 2027.
Mohamud’s government says the reforms form part of a long-delayed transition from indirect clan-based elections to one-person, one-vote polls.
The president has defended that agenda, asking in a recent speech: “Have there ever been indirect elections that have not resulted in deaths?”
Opposition leaders say Mohamud won election in 2022 on a four-year mandate that expired on May 15, 2026. They argue that no unilateral constitutional change can extend his authority without a national political agreement.
After talks between the government and opposition collapsed in May, Sheikh Sharif said “no one can change the four years,” adding that Mohamud’s “legal term has ended”.
Risk of repeat crisis
The dispute has revived memories of Somalia’s 2021 electoral crisis, when an attempt to extend then-president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo’s mandate triggered armed clashes in Mogadishu before political leaders returned to negotiations.
That precedent has increased concern among foreign partners over any new confrontation in the capital.
International partners, including the United Nations mission, the European Union, and several European embassies, this week urged Somali leaders to resume dialogue and to quickly agree on an election roadmap.
“We call on all sides to resume dialogue as soon as possible, and to swiftly reach consensus on an election roadmap in the interest of the Somali people,” they said in a joint statement.
The United States separately urged Somali political actors to “exercise restraint and avoid actions that fuel violence or instability”.
For now, both sides appear unwilling to step back.
The opposition says the protest will go ahead. The government says it will allow demonstrations only under controlled conditions.
With forces on the streets and opposition leaders mobilising across Mogadishu, the coming hours could determine whether Somalia’s political crisis remains an election dispute or turns into a wider security confrontation.
