Mogadishu (Somalia Today) – Recent direct elections in Mogadishu and South West State have dismantled one of the strongest arguments long wielded by politicians opposing Somalia’s democratic transition: the claim that one-person, one-vote elections are technically impossible.
That argument no longer carries the same weight.
Somalia has not yet held a fully agreed, nationwide direct election. Serious questions remain over transparency, political consensus, electoral independence, security and whether the current process serves partisan interests.
But the reality on the ground has fundamentally shifted. The national debate is no longer about whether direct voting can happen. It is now about whether the process can be made credible, inclusive and trusted.
A new reality
In December 2025, Mogadishu hosted its most significant direct election exercise in more than half a century.
Residents cast ballots in local council elections across the capital’s 16 districts, in what was widely described as Somalia’s first one-person, one-vote local election since 1969.
More than 900,000 voters registered for the exercise, which international news agencies, including Reuters, described as a critical first step towards restoring universal suffrage after more than five decades without direct elections.
The vote was highly controversial. Opposition groups boycotted the process, accusing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration of pushing an electoral timetable designed to consolidate power.
They argued that poor security and a lack of broad political consensus made the vote deeply flawed.
Those concerns hold weight. But one fact remains difficult to deny: people voted. A direct electoral process took place in the capital of a country that has spent decades relying on indirect clan bargaining and elite-level deals.
The South West test
That picture was reinforced on May 10, when South West State held direct elections across the Bay, Bakool and Lower Shabelle regions.
The National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission reported that 376,212 voters registered for the exercise, which covered 13 districts.
The scale was unprecedented for the region: 394 candidates contested seats in the regional assembly, while 1,297 candidates ran for local council positions.
For the federal government, the vote signalled that Somalia can systematically move away from indirect political selection towards direct public participation.
President Mohamud framed the South West vote as a decisive step away from elite political selection and towards universal suffrage, a shift also noted by international observers and news agencies.
For the opposition, it was another disputed process held without sufficient consensus in a political environment they view as heavily tilted in the government’s favour.
Both arguments deserve scrutiny.
The elections in Mogadishu and South West were not perfect. They did not resolve Somalia’s political crisis, nor did they address questions of legality, security, or public trust.
But they did seriously weaken the claim that direct elections are technically impossible.
From now on, any politician who argues that “one-person, one-vote cannot happen in Somalia” faces a clear reality: citizens voted in Mogadishu and in South West State.
The real dispute
Political observers say this visible proof forces the opposition to make a strategic pivot.
“The opposition’s strongest argument is no longer rejecting one-person, one-vote as a logistical impossibility,” said Ahmed Abdi, a Mogadishu-based political analyst closely tracking the transition.
“Their strongest argument should now be: ‘We support direct elections, but we do not trust the government to manage them fairly.’ That shifts the entire debate from technical capacity to political credibility.”
This opens the door to the real questions Somalia must answer.
Who manages the election? Under what law? With what safeguards? Who controls security? What guarantees exist for candidates, parties and voters?
It also forces a necessary discussion about the independence of electoral bodies, voter registration, campaign freedom, dispute resolution and the role of federal member states.
A flawed direct election is not democracy. But a flawed process is not an argument for returning to indirect selection. It is an argument for reforming the direct electoral process until it becomes credible.
Hassan’s message
President Mohamud made the government’s position clear as South West voters went to the polls, arguing that the country’s future cannot remain in the hands of a small circle of political elites.
That message reflects the federal government’s broader ambition: to make direct elections the permanent foundation of Somali politics.
Hassan Sheikh described the vote as a major step in Somalia’s transition from indirect clan-based selection to universal suffrage.
“Today is one of the great days in which Somalia is making history,” he said on Sunday after the South West elections.
“For the second time, Somali people moved today towards one-person, one-vote elections and towards expressing their opinion on who they want to lead them.”
He said direct elections reflected the public will more clearly than elite bargaining or political deals between a small number of actors.
“One man standing alone somewhere does not represent the Somali interest,” he said. “The Federal Government has worked on this, and it wants the rest of the country to complete it in the same way.”
By moving ahead with the Mogadishu and South West elections despite opposition criticism, President Hassan Sheikh gained tangible proof for his argument that universal suffrage can be implemented.
Thus, opposition leaders cannot claim to defend democracy while rejecting every pathway that gives ordinary citizens a direct vote, unless they present a more credible alternative.
Indirect era fading
Somalia’s indirect electoral model once served a critical purpose. Born out of state collapse, insecurity and deep mistrust, it helped the country avoid a complete political vacuum when nationwide direct voting was impossible.
But over time, that temporary remedy became a political disease.
The indirect system empowered power brokers, financiers and clan middlemen. It reduced the citizens’ voice to a bargaining chip and turned elections into transactions negotiated in closed hotel rooms.
Somalia cannot afford to return to that model.
The lesson from Mogadishu and South West is clear: the technical debate is over, and the trust debate has begun.
It will now be exceedingly difficult for the opposition to convince Somalis or international partners that the country should return to indirect elections as a matter of principle.
The more persuasive position is to accept direct voting as the destination, while fiercely fighting over the rules, safeguards, and conditions required to make it legitimate.
One-person, one-vote is no longer a distant slogan in Somalia. It is an emerging reality.
The country has crossed the technical threshold. Now it must cross the harder one: moving from simply holding elections to building durable public trust in them.
