Somalia: Ruling party sweeps capital poll; opposition cries foul

Mogadishu (Somalia Today) – Somalia’s ruling party has secured a commanding majority in the first direct local elections held in Mogadishu in more than five decades, officials announced Tuesday, in a milestone vote now clouded by opposition allegations of fraud and “stolen” ballots.

The National Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (NIEBC) declared that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP) won 177 of the 390 seats across the capital’s 16 districts, securing 46.3 percent of the vote.

Trailing the JSP, the Towfiiq party finished second with 49 seats (13.6%), followed by Ramaas with 42 seats (9.7%) and Karaama with 39 seats (9.4%).

According to the commission, 20 political associations fielded roughly 1,605 candidates for the council seats. The official tally showed 233,314 ballots cast, of which 210,586 were valid and 22,728 were invalid.

The government has framed the December 25 poll as a successful pilot for nationwide universal suffrage, intended to replace the country’s complex clan-based power-sharing model.

However, the National Progress and Unity (NPU) party—one of several opposition groups that took part in the vote—immediately rejected the results.

The party alleged that officials reassigned its votes in key districts to the ruling party, casting a shadow over what the government had billed as a democratic breakthrough.

‘Reassigned’ ballots

In a statement issued shortly after the commission released the results, the NPU, led by former parliament speaker and Southwest State President Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, claimed the electoral commission had fatally compromised its independence.

Sharif Hassan had previously belonged to the opposition National Salvation Forum—an umbrella bloc of former leaders challenging the government’s electoral approach—but broke away earlier this year to join a faction that endorsed the federal government’s electoral model in August.

Despite that alignment, his party specifically alleged that officials removed votes it secured in the Waaberi district and “transferred” them to the JSP.

“The commission’s independence and neutrality have been violated,” the NPU said, warning that a “manufactured” result threatened the country’s stability.

The opposition also highlighted that Somalia lacks a functioning Constitutional Court—an institution international partners have long urged the country to establish—leaving parties without a credible legal route to adjudicate election disputes.

This rejection is not an isolated incident but part of a wider political crisis. Just days before the vote, opposition heavyweights and leaders from the semi-autonomous states of Puntland and Jubaland gathered for a high-level summit in Kismayo.

The Kismayo bloc has fiercely criticized the Mogadishu local elections, viewing them as a “centralizing step” designed to consolidate power in the presidency at the expense of the federal system.

Ending a ‘long detour’

The election marked the first time since March 1969 that residents of Mogadishu cast ballots under a “one-person, one-vote” system. That early experiment ended months later when a military coup led by Siad Barre ushered in decades of dictatorship, followed by state collapse in 1991.

Over the past two decades, Somalia has rebuilt institutions through negotiated settlements rather than popular elections. Since the early 2000s, the country has relied on an indirect selection system in which clan elders choose delegates, who then select lawmakers to elect the president.

This arrangement, known as the “4.5” formula, emerged in the late 1990s and took formal shape during the 2000 peace talks.

It allocates political representation equally among four major clan groupings, while minority communities receive a reduced share. Designers of the model argued it limited conflict during the civil war, but critics say it entrenches tribalism and weakens accountability.

President Mohamud’s administration has pushed to move beyond that system. In 2024, the cabinet approved legislation aimed at restoring universal suffrage, with a roadmap that envisions direct parliamentary elections by 2026.

However, the plan remains politically divisive. Under current proposals, lawmakers may still elect the president rather than voters choosing directly—a hybrid approach that has drawn sharp criticism from opposition figures.

Capital’s uncertain status

Voters went to the polls in Mogadishu under a heavy security lockdown in a city that remains a frequent target for Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-linked insurgent group that seeks to overthrow the government.

Authorities deployed about 10,000 security personnel on election day, restricting vehicle traffic and shutting down key infrastructure to deter attacks.

The government has pointed to the relatively calm voting day as proof that Somalia can run direct elections despite the persistent insurgent threat.

Yet, Somalia’s political environment remains fraught. The electoral reform push has intersected with deep disputes between the federal government, opposition leaders, and several semi-autonomous regions.

Beyond the disputes, the election has renewed focus on Mogadishu’s unresolved constitutional status. The capital sits at the heart of Somalia’s federal system, but its administrative standing remains politically sensitive.

The Mayor of Mogadishu also serves as the Governor of the Benadir region, a dual role that often blurs the lines between municipal and regional authority. Supporters of the president argue that the JSP victory gives the government a strong mandate to run the capital during the transition.

However, the convergence of the NPU’s fraud allegations with the broader institutional rejection from the Kismayo summit suggests that rather than settling the capital’s status, the election may have opened a new front in Somalia’s volatile political struggle.

As of late Wednesday, the electoral commission had not publicly responded to the specific allegations of vote transfer in Waaberi.