Kismayo (Somalia Today) — Somali opposition heavyweights, federal lawmakers, and regional leaders gathered in the southern port city of Kismayo have firmly rejected any extension of federal terms, warning that the Horn of Africa nation is sliding toward a “dangerous political split” without immediate election talks.
In a strongly worded statement issued Saturday, the forum—which met to address what it called Somalia’s deepening “political, security, economic, and humanitarian” issues—demanded a national rescue path to avoid a looming legal void.
The high-stakes gathering in Jubaland’s temporary capital has drawn sharp criticism from President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who questioned the logic of the venue.
“They used to meet at Hotel Jazeera. I cannot understand the logic of how they can now come to Kismayo and ‘fight’ from there,” Mohamud said at a ceremony marking the 82nd anniversary of the Somali Police Force in Mogadishu, referring to the opposition’s usual meeting grounds in the capital.
Despite the mockery, the President offered a conditional olive branch, challenging the group to present a unified position for negotiation. “If you have met, consult and agree among yourselves; bring us a position we can discuss,” he added.
Deadlines
The Kismayo forum responded by placing strict constitutional timelines at the center of its plan.
To prevent a crisis of trust similar to the violent standoffs of past election cycles, the leaders demanded that President Mohamud hold a broad national conference by 20 January 2026.
The statement stressed that the term of the House of the People expires on 14 April 2026, followed by the President’s term on 15 May 2026.
The group vowed it would “never accept any term extension for constitutional bodies,” warning that any delay would trigger “political instability, a legal void, and a security breakdown.”
They argued that only a “mutually agreed, transparent election” could prevent the country from sliding into a dispute over who is in charge.
The declaration framed the electoral standoff not merely as a scheduling conflict, but as a deep clash over the rules of the state and the “social contract” anchored in the 2012 Provisional Constitution.
The opposition accused the federal government of skipping shared politics to push through one-sided constitutional changes, which they declared invalid.
This path, they warned, “splits the Somali people” and threatens to break the federal deal that holds the fragile nation together.
Banadir vote
A main complaint detailed in the statement is the federal government’s push for direct voting in the Banadir region, which includes Mogadishu.
The forum criticized the process as “an election driven by one group,” arguing it effectively leaves out the residents of the capital while its political status remains legally unresolved.
Proceeding without a broad national agreement, they warned, “ignores the Provisional Constitution” and risks widening the trust gap rather than closing it.
The statement also reminded leaders of Federal Member States with expired terms to hold their own local elections immediately “in accordance with their constitutions,” signaling that challenges to legal status are not confined to the federal center but spread to the regional governments as well.
This focus on rules highlights the opposition’s fear that the current administration is trying to gather power by rewriting the rules of the game late in the term, a move that historically sparks resistance in Somalia’s clan-based federal system.
Security strain
The political dispute is playing out against a backdrop of unstable security, with the forum warning that governance chaos directly hurts the fight against Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State group’s Somalia branch.
While the leaders expressed support for military operations against “Al-Shabaab and Daesh” and praised the sacrifices of Somali forces, they cautioned that political failures are hurting troop morale, discipline, and coordination.
The opposition argued that Somalia cannot afford division while rebels remain capable of using political rifts and local grievances to regroup.
Broadening their critique to social justice and governance, the leaders condemned the “selling and looting of national assets” and accused state security forces of forcing vulnerable communities out of their homes in Mogadishu.
The statement also raised alarms over shrinking political freedoms, criticizing what it described as state interference in independent bodies, including universities and media outlets, during the election period—a claim President Mohamud flatly rejected, asserting that “no one is being silenced.”
Concluding with an appeal to the international community, the forum urged partners to support a scheduled, consensus-based election and called for urgent aid from government and diaspora leaders to help people hit hard by repeated droughts.
The Kismayo statement has effectively started a countdown on two fronts: the constitutional term expirations in early 2026, and the opposition’s own January 20 deadline, raising the stakes for a potential clash if a negotiated deal is not reached.
