Barawa (Somalia Today) – Somalia’s federal government sent special police units to South West State on Thursday, deepening a constitutional standoff that has raised fresh concerns about the stability of the country’s fragile federal system.
The troop movements came just days after the regional administration cut ties with Mogadishu, rejected a newly amended constitution, and accused the central government of fuelling armed unrest.
Hundreds of personnel from the elite Haramcad police force flew out of Mogadishu early on Thursday aboard Fokker 50 aircraft, according to local security sources.
The contingents landed in Barawa, a coastal city in Lower Shabelle that serves as the official capital of South West State, although the administration currently operates from Baidoa as its interim seat.
Military sources told Somalia Today that the commander of the Somali National Army, General Ibrahim Mohamed Mahmud, received orders late on Wednesday to prepare an additional 1,100 soldiers, drawn from various units, for deployment to the region.
The federal plan reportedly focuses on reinforcing positions in Barawa and securing the corridor stretching towards Buurhakaba in Bay region, where anti-government militias have recently become more active.
War of words
The military build-up followed a sharp political rupture.
On Wednesday, South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, better known as Laftagareen, declared that his administration would no longer recognise the federal government or the newly amended constitution.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed the revised charter into law on March 8. It replaces Somalia’s clan-based indirect voting system with universal suffrage, but also extends presidential and parliamentary terms from 4 to 5 years, effectively pushing elections to 2027.
Laftagareen accused Mogadishu of bypassing consensus and trying to concentrate power at the centre. He went further, accusing federal ministers of backing local militias in Bay region to destabilise his administration.
He also alleged that federal officials had become aligned with Al-Shabaab, claiming that weapons supplied by Mogadishu had passed through militant-held areas before reaching anti-Laftagareen forces in Buurhakaba.
Federal officials rejected the accusations.
Ports and Marine Transport Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, known as Jama, responded by arguing that Laftagareen’s mandate had expired in December 2022.
Jama said the regional leader had stayed in office only because of political accommodation.
“Tell the mayor his house lease ended on December 19, 2022. Since then, he has been living in that house by mutual understanding,” Jama said in a statement.
“South West State will not be a place hijacked… wake up from your dream, one-person-one-vote elections will be held.”
Widening split
The crisis in South West State is now drawing in other powerful political actors across Somalia.
The Somali Future Council, an opposition coalition that includes Puntland, Jubaland, and the Salvation Forum, voiced support for Laftagareen on Thursday.
The group issued a statement backing South West’s right to hold its own elections under the 2012 provisional constitution.
It also warned President Mohamud against using “the Armed Forces and other sensitive state institutions” to pursue political ends.
The opposition bloc urged Galmudug and Hirshabelle, the two federal states still aligned with Mogadishu, to organise their own regional elections.
With South West now joining Puntland and Jubaland in open opposition to the centre, three of Somalia’s five federal member states are no longer aligned with the federal government.
Puntland suspended ties with Mogadishu in March 2024, followed by Jubaland in November.
Security concerns
The standoff carries a strong political irony.
Laftagareen came to power in 2018 through a regional election widely seen as shaped by Mogadishu. At the time, federal forces suppressed protests after former Al-Shabaab deputy leader Mukhtar Robow was blocked from running.
Now the federal government is mobilising forces against the same regional leader it once helped bring to office.
Beyond the political fallout, the crisis carries wider security risks.
South West State remains one of the main front lines in the war against Al-Shabaab. The insurgents continue to control parts of the countryside and regularly carry out attacks against civilian and military targets.
Security analysts say deploying elite units such as Haramcad to manage a political dispute could draw resources away from the counter-insurgency campaign.
A prolonged standoff between federal and regional forces would also create openings for Al-Shabaab at a time when Somalia is already facing mounting political and security pressure.
It remains unclear whether Thursday’s deployment was meant as a temporary show of force or the start of a broader federal move in Barawa.
But the latest troop movements, together with hardening political rhetoric and growing opposition support for Laftagareen, suggest Somalia’s latest federal dispute is entering a more dangerous phase.
