Baidoa (Somalia Today) – Somali federal forces have advanced towards the interim capital of South West State after clashes with militants, sharpening a political standoff with regional authorities over a disputed local election.
The push towards Baidoa came hours after South West State leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, known as Laftagareen, secured re-election on Saturday in a hurried vote that the federal government rejected.
The overlap between military movements and electoral confrontation has raised fears of wider instability in one of Somalia’s most politically and strategically sensitive regions.
Somalia’s defence ministry said federal troops had taken “full control” of Daynunay, a village about 18 kilometres from Baidoa.
The government described the operation as an anti-insurgency success, saying troops killed 21 Al-Shabaab fighters and wounded more than 10 others after the militants tried to launch a surprise attack on army positions.
In a separate statement, the federal government accused Laftagareen and South West parliament speaker Ali Said Fiqi of maintaining “direct links” with Al-Shabaab, a claim that sharply raised the political stakes of the confrontation.
The information ministry said the two men had circulated what it described as fabricated reports against Somalia’s international partners while defending militants defeated in the Daynuunaay fighting.
It added that the government was gathering evidence and examining possible legal action.
At the same time, reports said federal troops and allied local forces were moving along the route linking Mogadishu to Baidoa, bringing fighters aligned with the central government closer to Laftagareen’s stronghold.
Disputed vote
The military movement comes against a rapidly worsening political backdrop that has placed fresh strain on Somalia’s fragile federal system.
On Saturday, regional lawmakers in Baidoa re-elected Laftagareen in a rapid vote.
The federal government in Mogadishu quickly rejected the process as illegal, saying it fell outside the constitutional and political framework agreed for Somalia’s electoral transition.
The standoff has left both sides pressing rival claims to legality as opposing forces draw closer on the ground.
South West State had already suspended all cooperation with the federal government on March 17, accusing Mogadishu of arming local militias to unseat Laftagareen.
After that rupture, commercial flights between Mogadishu and Baidoa stopped, although humanitarian flights continued.
Constitutional crisis
At the heart of the dispute is President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s effort to reshape Somalia’s electoral order.
On March 5, parliament approved constitutional changes intended to move the country away from a clan-based indirect voting system towards universal suffrage.
Somalia has not held direct national elections since 1969, shortly before the military coup that eventually led to the state’s collapse in 1991.
Mohamud’s administration has presented the reforms as a step towards democratic legitimacy.
Critics, however, say the amendments were pushed through without the broad national consensus required in a country still marked by deep political fragmentation.
Opponents, including several regional presidents, fear the constitutional changes will centralise power in Mogadishu, weaken regional autonomy, and potentially extend the president’s term by a year, delaying elections due in 2026.
The rupture is especially striking because Laftagareen had until recently been seen as one of Mohamud’s closest regional allies.
That relationship collapsed as Baidoa accused the federal government of interference in its security and finances, alleging that Mogadishu had mobilised armed groups wearing national army uniforms across South West districts.
Humanitarian fears
The growing brinkmanship has prompted concern among international partners.
The British embassy in Mogadishu warned that the tensions risked “further destabilising the security situation” and urged all sides to prioritise de-escalation.
The United Nations mission in Somalia also called for “constructive dialogue” to prevent the dispute from sliding into violence.
Those warnings reflect the humanitarian stakes as much as the political ones.
Baidoa is not only the political centre of South West State, but also a major humanitarian hub, hosting large numbers of internally displaced people who have fled drought, flooding, and conflict.
Any fighting involving federal troops, regional forces, and allied militias would place additional pressure on communities already facing severe food insecurity.
Al-Shabaab threat
The crisis also carries a wider security dimension.
Ethiopian troops have long maintained a presence in and around Baidoa, operating both within and outside African Union frameworks.
Ethiopia has cultivated security ties with Laftagareen as part of its broader effort to contain Al-Shabaab near its border.
There is no public indication that Ethiopian forces would intervene directly in any confrontation between Mogadishu and Baidoa.
Sources told Somalia Today that Ethiopian forces in Baidoa had informed Laftagareen they could not protect him or fight Somali federal troops on his behalf, warning that such a move would risk major diplomatic fallout.
The sources said Addis Ababa was instead trying to secure an exit for the South West leader as Mogadishu moved close to a thousand troops into the wider theatre and his support base weakened, leaving his chances of political survival increasingly slim.
But their presence adds another layer of complexity to a crisis already shaped by domestic rivalries and regional tensions.
Security analysts warn that Al-Shabaab could benefit most if the standoff deepens.
Friction between Mogadishu and Baidoa risks opening security gaps along important corridors and diverting state forces from the wider fight against the Al-Qaeda-linked insurgency.
For Laftagareen, the political space appears to be narrowing despite his disputed re-election as military pressure builds closer to Baidoa.
For Mohamud, the advance projects federal resolve but also carries the danger of reviving a familiar Somali pattern, in which disputes over constitutions and elections move from politics into armed confrontation.
