Baidoa (Somalia Today) – Somalia’s South West State has warned that escalating military deployments by the federal government risk plunging the country into civil war and a humanitarian catastrophe.
A sharply worded statement accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of turning a constitutional dispute into a direct military confrontation.
The crisis deepened further on Tuesday as the federal interior ministry moved to install a new administration in the contested district of Waajid.
The move came a day after an aircraft carrying federal officers and supplies came under fire in Waajid on Monday.
In its Monday statement, the South West presidency in Baidoa warned that political disputes “that should be resolved through constitutional and legal processes are now being pursued through force”.
The worsening standoff threatens to trigger mass displacement in a region already battered by severe drought and chronic insecurity.
‘Misuse of foreign support’
South West State alleged that national military resources are being dangerously redirected from the fight against Al-Shabaab towards domestic political objectives.
It claimed that Somali National Army (SNA) forces, trained by international partners including Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Britain, and the United States, have been deployed in internal operations.
The regional administration also warned that the SNA has, in practice, become a “clan-based force” deployed against the people of South West State.
It alleged that light and heavy weapons recently donated by Egypt are being used in the internal confrontation.
Egypt has emerged as a major military backer of Mogadishu following a bitter diplomatic fallout between Somalia and Ethiopia over the breakaway region of Somaliland.Â
Since late 2024, Egyptian military aircraft have delivered multiple shipments of heavy artillery and anti-aircraft weapons to the Somali capital as military ties deepened between the two countries.
South West State said this diversion of resources is taking place while Al-Shabaab jihadists maintain control over large swathes of Bakool and Lower Shabelle.
Districts including Tiyeglow, Rabdhoore, Kurtunwaarey, and Sablale remain under militant influence.
Resource control dispute
The regional presidency went further, accusing the federal government of trying to politically weaken the state by detaching the Lower Shabelle region.
It explicitly linked the military posturing to wider tensions over lucrative oil and gas concessions recently signed with Turkey.
Ankara deployed its Oruc Reis seismic research vessel to Somali waters in late 2024, and Mogadishu expects to announce its first official oil production by the end of 2026.
South West State accused Mogadishu of trying to retain direct, unilateral control over these national resources.
The political breakdown played out in the southwestern Bakool region following the controversial Waajid appointments.
Under an order signed by federal Interior Minister Ali Yusuf Ali Hosh, Hassan Abdi Isaq became district commissioner of Waajid.
Mohamed Abdirahman Mohamed became first deputy commissioner for security and politics, Aden Ali Kulow became second deputy commissioner for social affairs, and Ayanle Abdi Dhuuh Yare became secretary of the local government.
The order told the newly appointed officials to take up their posts immediately, entirely bypassing the regional administration’s authority.
The appointments added to an already volatile confrontation between Mogadishu and Baidoa.
Federal authorities gave no immediate public account of casualties or damage in Waajid.
Constitutional rupture
The escalating rhetoric reflects a dramatic collapse in relations between Mogadishu and Baidoa.
Last week, South West State suspended all cooperation with the federal government.
Regional President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen accused Mogadishu of blatant interference and attempts to systematically undermine his administration.
The current standoff stems from a bitter dispute over sweeping constitutional reforms approved by the federal parliament earlier this month.
Critics argue that the amendments heavily concentrate power in the executive branch and extend presidential terms.
Opponents claim the federal government pushed the changes through without the broad national consensus required in Somalia’s delicate federal system.
The Waajid clash comes at a particularly sensitive time, as the African Union continues its phased transition of security responsibilities to Somali forces.
South West State said the situation in Baidoa and across many of its towns has become critical.
It said civilians face a “very real threat of violence” and are “beginning to flee their homes”.
Without immediate international intervention, the administration warned the crisis could quickly spiral into “a humanitarian catastrophe of significant proportions”.
Tuesday’s developments strongly suggested the political battle is widening far beyond the Bakool region.
In an apparent retaliatory move, South West’s interior ministry issued a separate decree naming new district commissioners for four districts in Mogadishu’s Banaadir region.
The extraordinary exchange of rival appointments underscores the sheer depth of the constitutional breakdown.
Despite the soaring tensions, traditional elders are working frantically behind the scenes to calm the situation.
Whether these mediation efforts succeed will determine if the Waajid crisis remains a containable standoff or becomes the spark that ignites a broader conflict.
