Mogadishu (Somalia Today) — Negotiators from the Somali federal government and a powerful opposition alliance reached a preliminary deal on Wednesday to hold crisis talks at a neutral venue, aiming to defuse a year-long political standoff, sources told Somalia Today.
Sources close to the technical committees confirmed that both sides have agreed in principle to convene the upcoming summit within the Aden Adde International Airport complex.
The heavily fortified zone, commonly known as Halane, hosts the United Nations and foreign diplomatic missions, and has long served as a secure venue for sensitive political meetings in Somalia.
Opposition leaders had steadfastly refused to meet at the presidential palace, Villa Somalia, citing deep mistrust following months of escalating confrontation over constitutional amendments, election rules, and the balance of power between Mogadishu and federal member states.
The high-stakes talks are expected to open on February 1, following a formal invitation from President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration, the sources said.
Parliament turmoil
The diplomatic breakthrough coincided with chaotic scenes in parliament on Wednesday, underscoring the volatility of the dispute.
Witnesses reported that lawmakers scuffled and shouted during a joint session after the speaker introduced an unexpected agenda to amend additional chapters of the provisional constitution.
The move prompted angry protests from MPs who argued the measure lacked consensus and risked reopening an already explosive debate.
Somalia has struggled for over a decade to finalise its provisional constitution, adopted in 2012, and repeated attempts to change the text have deepened divisions over power-sharing between the federal government and regional authorities.
The deadlock pits the federal government against the Somali Future Council (SFC), an opposition coalition formed in Nairobi on October 2, 2025.
The alliance unites the leaders of the semi-autonomous states of Puntland and Jubaland alongside prominent federal opposition figures, including former senior officials.
The bloc has positioned itself as a strategic counterweight to Mogadishu, accusing the presidency of pushing unilateral constitutional changes to tilt the playing field ahead of the 2026 polls and weaken Somalia’s federal model.
Amendment flashpoint
The dispute escalated sharply after the federal parliament approved sweeping constitutional amendments on March 30, 2024.
The legislative package included provisions aimed at restoring universal suffrage — “one person, one vote” — and changes that expanded presidential authority, reforms the government framed as necessary to stabilise the country’s institutions.
Opponents, however, denounced the amendments as a power grab.
They argue that Somalia cannot organise a credible nationwide direct vote under current security conditions, with Al-Shabaab still able to mount lethal attacks, disrupt logistics, and intimidate communities across large rural areas.
Puntland, which has long demanded stronger federal checks and a clearer division of powers, responded by declaring it would no longer recognise the federal government’s decisions until an inclusive national process agrees on any constitutional changes.
At the heart of the standoff is how Somalia chooses its leaders.
For decades, the Horn of Africa nation has relied on an indirect system rooted in clan power-sharing, in which elders select delegates who elect lawmakers, who then choose the president.
President Mohamud argues that Somalia must transition to universal suffrage as a critical step in state-building after more than three decades of state collapse and insurgency.
The government has pointed to recent one-person, one-vote local elections held in Mogadishu as proof that direct voting is possible.
However, opposition figures argue that the capital cannot serve as a national model and insist that any electoral roadmap must be negotiated among federal and regional stakeholders.
Warrant hurdle
A significant obstacle in the pre-talks has been the legal status of Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe, a key regional powerbroker whose relationship with Mogadishu has sharply deteriorated.
Jubaland held an indirect presidential election in late November 2024, re-electing Madobe for a third term — a vote the federal government declared illegal.
Days later, the feud escalated into an extraordinary legal tit-for-tat: prosecutors in Mogadishu issued an arrest warrant for Madobe on treason-related allegations, while Jubaland authorities retaliated with a warrant targeting President Mohamud.
Sources involved in Wednesday’s technical discussions said government representatives signalled a willingness to neutralise the warrant against Madobe — a key opposition demand — arguing that dialogue cannot begin while a participating regional leader faces the threat of arrest.
The stakes for the upcoming talks are high.
With the 2026 election cycle looming, political actors fear that an unresolved constitutional and electoral dispute could fracture security cooperation between Mogadishu and key federal member states at a moment when Somalia is also trying to sustain pressure on Al-Shabaab.
Analysts and international observers have warned that a breakdown could trigger another destabilising election crisis, recalling past stand-offs that fuelled armed confrontations in Mogadishu and pushed the country to the brink.
Despite the political rift, negotiators have found common ground on summit security arrangements.
Sources said the sides agreed on protocols for the personal protection details of Puntland and Jubaland leaders to avoid friction with federal forces during the Halane meeting.
They also aim to issue a joint statement focused on shared priorities — including the fight against Al-Shabaab and the response to recurring drought — while leaving the most divisive questions, especially the constitutional amendments and the election roadmap, for political leaders to settle face-to-face.
