Mogadishu (Somalia Today) — Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has issued a stark warning regarding Mogadishu’s upcoming local elections, cautioning that the capital’s first direct ballot in more than half a century could ignite a fresh political crisis rather than resolve existing tensions.
Sharif accused the federal government of steering a partisan process lacking the necessary legal consensus or security foundations to succeed.
In an exclusive interview with the BBC Somali Service, Sharif contended that the nation is “not yet prepared for a genuine one-person, one-vote electoral process.”
He argued that pressing ahead with the municipal ballot under current conditions risks exacerbating the country’s deepening constitutional standoff and potentially destabilising an already fragile political landscape.
Historic democracy test
The federal government plans to hold a one-person, one-vote local council election in Mogadishu later this December. If successful, it would mark a watershed moment: the first direct contest of its kind since 1969.
Officials began distributing voter cards in November, framing the poll as a flagship stress test for a broader national transition. The government views this as the definitive step away from the archaic 4.5 clan-based power-sharing model and toward universal suffrage.
Villa Somalia champions this ballot as the centrepiece of a sweeping overhaul. On March 30, 2024, parliament ratified a controversial package of constitutional amendments.
These changes extend the terms of federal institutions from 4 to 5 years, entrench the principle of universal suffrage, and steer Somalia toward a restricted multi-party system.
Proponents within the administration characterise the capital’s vote as the practical application of this new order. They argue the government is simply fulfilling its mandate to modernise Somalia’s governance.
However, the initiative faces a boycott from almost all heavyweight opposition figures. They refused to register their political associations because they believe the legal framework, security environment, and electoral management bodies lack broad national consent.
Process over principle
Sharif clarified that he does not object to the democratic ideal itself. “The problem is not the destination, it is the way we are being taken there,” he explained, noting that Somalis have been promised direct elections for twenty-five years and deserve to choose their leaders.
However, he insisted that any credible election requires three prerequisites: a comprehensive political agreement, a realistic security strategy, and a jointly negotiated framework.
“Security is not theoretical for this city,” Sharif observed, pointing to the persistent threat posed by Al-Shabaab. The group continues to launch attacks within and around the capital. “When you rush a vote in a place like this, you take a big risk if the politics are already divided.”
Sharif reserved his sharpest criticism for the National Independent Electoral Commission. He described the body as “appointed by one side” rather than a consensus institution.
He alleged that a single pro-government association aligned with Villa Somalia dominates the campaign landscape, creating a distinct lack of competitive fairness.
“In technical terms, we need a commission that everyone accepts,” he asserted. “If the referee belongs to one camp, nobody trusts the result.”
Sharif also challenged the legitimacy of the recent legislative process. He argued that parliament passed key electoral laws and constitutional chapters without a full quorum.
He claimed the legislature unilaterally altered “fundamental principles,” violating the spirit of the constitution.
According to the former president, opposition leaders formally requested a reopening of dialogue on the electoral model and the amendments. He places the blame for the current deadlock squarely on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, stating the President “insisted that nothing would be changed.”
Opposition alliance
Sharif is now a leading voice within the Council for Somalia’s Future, a formidable opposition alliance that unites the National Salvation Forum with the leadership of Puntland and Jubaland.
This bloc coalesced in the wake of the March constitutional amendments. On March 31, 2024, Puntland’s cabinet announced it would cease to recognise the federal government’s authority.
They declared they would act independently until a referendum approves a final constitution. Jubaland has since hardened its stance, mirroring Puntland’s disengagement amid deteriorating relations with Mogadishu.
Sharif revealed that the Council plans to convene a major summit in Kismayo. The objective is to forge a unified opposition stance on the 2026 national elections and chart a path out of the current impasse.
He emphasised that this gathering is not a “closed club” but a necessary political conference for Puntland, Jubaland, and the National Salvation Forum.
The former president insisted that any resulting national dialogue must remain inclusive. He called for welcoming key actors, including former President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmaajo” and politicians who recently struck separate deals with the government.
“Anyone with political weight, whether a former president or another leader, should have a place in a national dialogue,” Sharif said.
“We sat in the palace for days and tried to reach a deal. Some colleagues accepted what was on the table. We did not think it solved the real problems.”
Term extension fears
Deep anxiety regarding power and timing underpins the dispute over the municipal vote.
Critics view the March amendments—which extend the terms of federal institutions and strengthen the presidency’s formal powers—with deep suspicion. They argue that Villa Somalia rushed these changes without genuine consultation, particularly with federal member states.
The opposition fears that a contested local election in Mogadishu, combined with the new constitutional architecture and logistical delays elsewhere, could serve as a pretext.
They worry the government will use it to extend President Hassan Sheikh’s tenure beyond his mandate, which expires in May 2026. The President and his allies vehemently reject this, maintaining that the reforms aim to stabilise institutions, not prolong individual rule.
Sharif argued that until a true reconciliation process is complete, Somalia effectively remains under the 4.5 power-sharing formula.
He warned that the next electoral model must improve on the indirect contests of 2016–17 and 2021–22, which faced allegations of bribery and coercion.
“If we call this progress,” he warned, “the next election has to be cleaner than the last one, not more divisive.”
Fragile security context
The Mogadishu experiment arrives at a precarious moment for Somalia’s security architecture.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which has bolstered Somali forces since 2022, is preparing to hand over responsibilities to the new African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
Diplomats and analysts warn that funding gaps and friction between troop-contributing nations could complicate this delicate handover.
Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab remains a potent threat, staging regular bombings in central and southern Somalia that challenge government narratives of a weakening insurgency.
In this volatile environment, the Mogadishu election has evolved beyond a simple municipal contest.
For the government, it serves as a necessary proof of concept that Somalia can conduct direct polls. For Sharif and the opposition, it represents a high-stakes gamble that threatens to deepen fissures in the federal power-sharing arrangement.
How the capital votes—and how the country’s political elite reacts to the result—will serve as the bellwether. It will determine whether Somalia’s new democratic roadmap leads to stability or a new cycle of unrest.
