Baidoa (Somalia Today) – Somalia’s lower house speaker, Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur Madobe, arrived in Baidoa on Sunday, stepping into a decisive phase in the struggle for control of South West State after its former leader resigned and federal troops moved into the regional capital.
Madobe, a senior figure in President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s Justice and Solidarity Party, received a large welcome from interim South West leader Jibril Abdirashid Haji Abdi, lawmakers, ministers and crowds of supporters.
In brief remarks to reporters, the speaker thanked the regional authorities and residents who welcomed him and urged political actors to keep calm as the state prepares for elections.
He called for stability and cooperation on security, saying the region needed order during a sensitive transition.
The visit places one of Somalia’s most powerful federal politicians at the centre of a contest that has become a major test of Villa Somalia’s influence over the country’s federal member states.
Federal reset
The political shake-up follows the resignation of former South West president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen on March 30, days after federal government forces entered Baidoa.
Laftagareen had long faced pressure from Mogadishu over elections and political alignment, while his administration had become a focal point in wider disputes over Somalia’s federal system.
“I, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, effective today, 30 March 2026, have resigned from the position of President of Southwest State,” he said in a statement announcing his departure.
His exit cleared the way for Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre to appoint Deputy Prime Minister Jibril Abdirashid Haji Abdi as interim leader of South West State until elections are held.
The appointment gave the federal government a direct role in managing the transition and strengthened Mogadishu’s hand in a region that has often shaped national politics.
Baidoa remains strategically important. It hosts key regional institutions, humanitarian operations and international security actors, while also serving as a political base for several influential clans and federal politicians.
Predicted winner
Political sources told Somalia Today that Madobe has emerged as the strongest candidate for the South West presidency, with some local figures describing him as Villa Somalia’s favoured contender.
That perception has already shaped the race.
Sources familiar with the talks say President Mohamud persuaded Hussein Sheikh Mohamud, a former Villa Somalia chief of staff and close ally, to step aside from the contest in favour of Madobe.
Hussein Sheikh Mohamud, who had served as the deputy secretary-general of the Justice and Solidarity Party, was later promoted to the party’s secretary-general.
The move reinforced concerns among some South West politicians that the contest may not be fully open, especially while Baidoa remains in a transitional phase under strong federal political and security influence.
Madobe’s supporters, however, argue that his long political career, clan standing and experience in national institutions make him a stabilising figure at a difficult moment for the region.
His candidacy also gives President Mohamud’s party a chance to consolidate its influence in the first major regional contest since the federal government intensified its push for direct elections.
Election test
Somalia’s electoral commission has said South West State will begin one-person, one-vote elections on April 28, a major shift for a country that has relied for years on indirect, clan-based voting.
“We assure the public that April 28 is the official date on which the one-person, one-vote election in South West will begin,” the commission’s chairman said.
President Mohamud has repeatedly presented direct elections as a central pillar of his political reform agenda, saying Somali citizens must be able to choose their leaders directly.
But the process faces resistance from opposition figures and some regional actors who accuse the federal government of using electoral reform to expand its power before national political deadlines.
The transition in South West State is therefore more than a regional contest. It has become a measure of how far Villa Somalia can go in reshaping Somalia’s federal map.
The Baidoa manoeuvring also comes as Villa Somalia and the prime minister’s office continue to delay a broader cabinet reshuffle that has been widely discussed in Mogadishu.
In March, Prime Minister Hamza made limited changes, removing and appointing deputy ministers, but he has not announced a wider shake-up affecting senior ministers.
Political sources say several ministers could still move to new portfolios or take up other posts.
For now, however, the centre of political attention has shifted to Baidoa, where Villa Somalia appears focused on securing South West State before moving to other domestic files.
