Mogadishu (Somalia Today) — The International Crisis Group (ICG) warned Thursday that Somalia is losing ground in its long war with Al-Shabaab. The group has made steady gains this year as key funding sources have fallen and political fights have stalled the government.
The report urges global partners to address a growing security funding gap. Without that help, “Al-Shabaab will likely make further gains.”
The warning comes weeks after a bold October 4 attack in Mogadishu showed how fragile security is. Al-Shabaab gunmen in fake army uniforms used a car painted in army colors to enter a high-security National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) site, the government said.
Security forces killed all seven attackers. Even so, the strike on a guarded compound ended months of relative calm in the capital and proved the group can still hit the state’s core.
ICG says battlefield setbacks and tactical lapses are now mixing with donor fatigue, creating a new wave of risk. The crisis also threatens the African Union mission in Somalia, the central pillar of the country’s defense.
A resurgent and more skilled threat
ICG says the insurgency has made “steady gains of late,” using the government’s paralysis, a young and under-trained army, and clan grievances that weaken joint action against the militants.
Al-Shabaab also used the government’s focus on a disputed election to launch major, coordinated attacks in 2025.
In February, the group moved back into Middle Shabelle, taking land that government forces and allied clan militias had seized in 2022–2023.
By July, militants also took parts of Hiraan that had been under government control since 2014. A parallel push in Lower Shabelle, west of Mogadishu, “raised fears that the capital could come under threat.”
The October 4 NISA raid shows the group’s changing tactics. Officials said the use of disguise exposed gaps in the city’s security. The government then ordered tighter control of military vehicles and weapons. This ability to act inside the capital now pairs with gains in rural areas.
Government and Ugandan troops later drove the militants back in some zones. But the outlook is still bleak. “Al-Shabaab’s battlefield position is better than it was at the beginning of the year,” ICG wrote.
A shrinking pool of funds
The report also cites “waning enthusiasm for Somalia” among foreign partners. It says U.S. aid for programs in Somalia fell from $770 million in 2024 to $150 million in 2025.
European donors, ICG adds, “are also wondering whether their billions of dollars have been well spent, given the continued government dysfunction.”
The squeeze is sharpest at the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). So far, it has spent only 27 percent of its $166 million 2025 budget. The European Union has paid troop stipends “to the tune of €2.7 billion since 2007,” but those funds have “dipped every year.”
Plans for the United Nations to pay more in 2025 faltered when the United States did not back the move at the Security Council.
ICG says a complete, sudden AU pullout is unlikely. But the “anticipated budgetary shortfall will erode the mission’s capacity.” It could also push Somalia and troop-contributing states toward more “transactional agreements,” which may be less stable than today’s setup.
ICG urges the EU to confirm AUSSOM funding for 2025 soon. It also calls for EU training missions to help Somali forces—including state police and Darwish units—assume a greater share of the security burden.
Without steady outside support, Al-Shabaab’s resilience will keep endangering Somalia’s fragile gains.
