Kismayo (Somalia Today) — Somalia’s opposition opened a much-anticipated political conference in the southern port city of Kismayo on Thursday, unleashing blistering criticism of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s leadership and vowing to block any attempt to extend his term or hold elections without consensus.
The gathering – billed as Council for the Future of Somalia – was hosted by Jubaland state leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe.”
It drew heavyweights, including former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Puntland state President Said Abdullahi Deni. They accused Mohamud of driving the nation toward a constitutional crisis to tighten his grip on power.
Sharif, who led Somalia’s transitional government, claimed that Mohamud ignored the advice of veteran leaders and forced through contentious constitutional amendments for personal gain.
He warned that Somalia is “sliding back into authoritarianism” and questioned the legality of the administration’s current electoral plans.
“The current parliament cannot extend its own term,” Sharif said. He argued that any mandate beyond its four-year limit would be illegitimate.
Fracture fears
Puntland’s president Deni, delivered a stark warning that the country could splinter without renewed dialogue.
Speaking at the Kismayo forum, he said division would be inevitable without genuine consultation among leaders. “If we do not listen to one another, do not respect each other, and cannot live together… it leads to fragmentation,” Deni said.
He emphasised that his aim was not to assign blame but to seek solutions. Deni urged the president to embrace broad-based talks. “The country should be led toward elections agreed upon by all – nothing more is missing than that,” he said.
Jubaland’s Madobe, whose feud with Mohamud over regional autonomy escalated into a prolonged political standoff, adopted a conciliatory tone toward the president personally. However, he raised alarms over the country’s political direction.
Madobe said he had “forgiven” Hassan Sheikh Mohamud for past grievances but stressed that Somalia needs “rescuing.”
Some participants proposed drastic measures if the deadlock continues.
In remarks ahead of the summit, opposition lawmaker Dahir Amin Jesow issued an ultimatum. He warned that rivals would give Mohamud one last chance to change course or face the formation of a rival administration.
“If the president, who has four months left in his term, continues this theatre, the second phase will be the formation of a government by the Council and the Somali people,” Jesow said.
Election showdown
At the heart of the confrontation lies a dispute over Somalia’s electoral model and constitution. Mohamud has advocated for a shift to universal suffrage – a one-person, one-vote system – to replace the long-standing clan-based selection process.
In March 2024, the federal parliament in Mogadishu approved a package of constitutional amendments.
These included direct presidential elections, extending the presidential term from four to five years, and allowing the president to appoint the prime minister without parliamentary approval.
Mohamud’s administration described the reforms as a step toward a more stable and democratic system.
Critics argue that Mohamud pushed these changes through unilaterally and without national consensus.
Puntland rejected the March 2024 amendments and announced it would govern independently until a new constitution is ratified by referendum. Jubaland also cut cooperation with Mogadishu, calling the move an illegal power grab.
Opponents contend the reforms concentrate power in the presidency. They warn that the changes could justify extending Mohamud’s term under the guise of reform.
The federal government denies those claims. Officials insist the transition to direct elections serves the national interest after years of instability.
Interior Minister Ali “Hosh” Yusuf dismissed the Kismayo summit as obstructionist and accused attendees of resisting democratic progress. He argued that opposition leaders “fear returning power to ordinary citizens” through direct voting.
Villa Somalia has not publicly responded to the criticisms raised at the Kismayo summit, nor has it addressed opposition calls for an inclusive electoral dialogue.
Uncertain path forward
The stakes will soon be put to the test. After repeated delays, Somalia plans to hold its first direct local elections in decades on December 25 in the Banadir (Mogadishu) region.
The government sees this pilot vote as a key test of the new electoral model despite logistical and security hurdles.
The opposition counters that rushing to vote in the capital without a national consensus will deepen the crisis. They describe the exercise as political theatre designed to manufacture legitimacy ahead of the 2026 elections.
As the Kismayo conference continues through the weekend, analysts warn that a breakdown in talks could spark Somalia’s most serious constitutional crisis in years.
If the opposition follows through on threats to establish a parallel administration, the country may face a damaging legitimacy dispute once the current mandate expires.
The coming weeks will determine whether Somali leaders can agree on a credible electoral path or whether the country plunges deeper into political deadlock.
