Borama (Somalia Today) – Somalia’s government plans to retaliate against Israel’s formal recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland by supporting local separatist militias, intelligence sources have revealed, raising fears of a spiraling proxy conflict in the strategic Horn of Africa.
Two senior officials from Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) told the investigative outlet Drop Site that Mogadishu intends to weaponize clan grievances in the western Awdal province to destabilize the Somaliland government in Hargeisa.
The alleged plan marks a significant escalation following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s December 26 announcement recognizing Somaliland as an independent state—a move Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud denounced as “illegal aggression” and a violation of sovereignty.
According to the intelligence sources, Mogadishu aims to empower “unionist” clans in Awdal who have long opposed Somaliland’s secession from Somalia.
The region is strategically vital, sitting near the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint for global shipping.
“The clans in Awdal are crucial to thwarting Israel’s plans in Somaliland,” a senior NISA official said on condition of anonymity. “All they lack is political support and arms.”
Strategic foothold
Somaliland, a former British protectorate with a population of 4.5 million, declared independence from Somalia in 1991 following the collapse of the Siad Barre regime.
While it has maintained relative stability and its own government, currency, and security forces, it has lacked international recognition until Israel’s surprise move.
Analysts believe Tel Aviv views the territory as a critical asset for projecting power in the Red Sea and monitoring the Iran-backed Houthis in nearby Yemen.
“Recognition potentially opens channels for intelligence cooperation, surveillance capabilities, and logistical access,” said Jethro Norman, a senior researcher with the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS).
Norman noted that an Israeli presence in Somaliland would “compress” the distance required to strike targets in Yemen, which is currently an operationally demanding 2,000 kilometers from Israeli territory.
However, the move has infuriated Mogadishu, which considers Somaliland an integral part of its territory.
Somali officials have vowed to defend the country’s unity by “all necessary means,” with the support for Awdal rebels appearing to be the first kinetic lever pulled by the federal government.
‘Guban State’
Tensions on the ground have already erupted into violence. On January 21, the Somaliland army reported killing two gunmen and seizing weapons in Awdal, warning it would take “decisive action” against groups attempting to destabilize the region.
The following day, Somali federal lawmakers representing the Issa clan—which dominates Awdal and spans into neighboring Djibouti—announced the formation of a new “Guban State.”
The declaration, made from Mogadishu, directly challenges Hargeisa’s authority over the western territory and calls for reunification with federal Somalia.
The lawmakers issued a “stern warning” to Somaliland forces not to suppress what they termed “liberation movements.”
The diplomatic fallout has widened fractures among regional powers, threatening to draw neighboring states into the dispute.
Djibouti, which hosts major US and French military bases, has thrown its weight behind Mogadishu. The small coastal nation shares deep clan ties with the population of Awdal and has severed diplomatic contact with Somaliland following the Israeli deal.
Intelligence officials suggest Djibouti may assist in “propping up” fellow clansmen in the fight against Hargeisa.
Conversely, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) remains a key economic backer of Somaliland, managing the Berbera port through logistics giant DP World.
The rift has soured relations between Mogadishu and Abu Dhabi, leading Somalia to expel Emirati troops from its soil earlier this month.
Security risks
Security experts warn that introducing new arms into the region could have catastrophic consequences, potentially providing an opening for the Al-Shabaab jihadist group.
Although the Al-Qaeda affiliate is primarily active in southern Somalia, it maintains ties in the north. Observers fear an Israeli military presence could serve as a potent recruiting tool for extremists, turning the relatively stable region into a “hot zone.”
Beyond the influx of weapons, analysts warn that the “optics” of an Israeli base in the Horn of Africa creates a distinct ideological risk. It provides jihadists with a powerful narrative to rally fighters under the guise of defending Muslim lands against “foreign occupation.”
“A (Israeli) military base would create conditions which would lead to increased national divisions… turning this region a hot zone of conflicts,” said Hassan M. Said Samatar, a former Somali defense official.
The threat is not merely theoretical; several of Al-Shabaab’s most notorious leaders, including former emir Ahmed Abdi Godane, hailed from Somaliland, proving the group’s deep-rooted connections to the area.
“Al-Shabaab has considerable ties in Somaliland… It would be possible for them to clandestinely stage an operation,” said Markus Virgil Hoehne, a social anthropologist at the University of Goettingen.
“Generally, I think it is likely to assume that security in Somaliland will decline due to the presence of Israel.”
