Kismayo (Somalia Today) — The latest talks between Somalia’s federal government and the semi-autonomous Jubaland state ended without a breakthrough, underscoring deep divisions that complicate President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s effort to ease political tensions before his term ends.
The meetings in Kismayo brought together President Hassan Sheikh and Ahmed Mohamed Islam, the leader of Jubaland, known as Ahmed Madobe.
After two days of closed-door discussions, both sides held firm, officials briefed on the talks said.
Stalemate over elections and federal powers
Sources familiar with the meetings told local media the dialogue collapsed when neither leader shifted on core disputes.
President Hassan Sheikh pressed Madobe to rescind Jubaland’s disputed 2024 regional election and to rejoin the National Consultative Council, the forum that coordinates power-sharing and national polls among the federal states.
Madobe demanded that Mogadishu first recognize the legitimacy of Jubaland’s recent election before any reforms. “The talks failed because both sides refused to compromise,” said a political analyst in Kismayo who requested anonymity for security reasons.
Kenyan mediators who observed the meetings left Kismayo for Nairobi on Sunday after acknowledging that shuttle diplomacy had stalled. “No progress was achieved this round,” a Nairobi-based diplomat told Somalia Today. The diplomat added that a public communiqué would present the process as ongoing to preserve room for future engagement.
In a brief statement late Sunday, Villa Somalia said the discussions “achieved progress” and that both leaders agreed to continue dialogue. The statement did not name Ahmed Madobe, a sign of lingering tension with the Jubaland administration.
“The consultations achieved progress, and the sides agreed to continue the dialogue to advance the process,” the communiqué said, without detailing any agreed points. Jubaland authorities had not issued their own statement.
Independent analysts said the lack of concrete outcomes reflects a broader deadlock over Somalia’s federal model, in which regional leaders resist Mogadishu’s efforts to centralize control over elections, security, and revenue.
Regional dynamics and political backdrop
The Kismayo talks followed Ahmed Madobe’s recent meeting in Nairobi with Puntland’s leader and members of the opposition alliance known as the Forum for National Salvation.
That gathering gave rise to the Somalia Future Council, an opposition platform aimed at shaping the political transition. The move strained relations with the federal government.
The setback also comes as President Hassan Sheikh faces rising domestic pressure. Since 2022, his administration has struggled to manage rifts with federal member states while fighting al-Shabaab.
International partners, including the African Union and IGAD, have urged dialogue between Mogadishu and regional leaders to preserve national cohesion as Somalia prepares for a new constitutional framework and one-person-one-vote elections.
Despite the impasse, both sides agreed to issue a joint statement signaling that talks would resume later this year. Observers said the step aimed to avoid an open rupture that could unsettle southern Somalia, where Jubaland’s position near Kenya makes it central to regional security and trade.
“The fact that they are still talking is, in itself, a sign of progress,” said a regional diplomat. The diplomat noted that Kenya’s continued engagement “keeps the door open” for further negotiations.
For now, President Hassan Sheikh is expected to continue outreach to other regional leaders as part of a broader reconciliation drive before his mandate ends. Whether those efforts produce tangible results remains uncertain.
