Mogadishu (Somalia Today) — Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud appears to have scored a temporary victory over his political rivals after opposition leaders abruptly called off planned protests in Mogadishu this week, easing fears of unrest in the capital but leaving simmering tensions beneath the surface.
The demonstrations, set for Thursday, were organized by the National Salvation Forum, a coalition of former presidents, prime ministers, and lawmakers who accuse the government of using excessive force and ignoring the plight of residents evicted from public land.
In a video circulated on Tuesday, former prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire, a senior Forum figure, urged citizens to stage peaceful rallies on October 9 to protest what he called the “mercilessness of government officials” involved in demolitions of informal settlements.
The government has justified the demolitions as part of an effort to reclaim public land occupied illegally since the collapse of the central government in 1991. Critics say the evictions have been poorly handled, leaving thousands homeless on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
Forum’s influence wanes
As the city braced for potential clashes, Forum leaders met senior police officials on Wednesday evening. They agreed to suspend the demonstrations, citing security concerns.
“We agreed with the security officials to plan for a peaceful manifestation of concerns in a manner that ensures the safety of the city and the well-being of protesters,” lawmaker Abdirahman Abdishakur, one of the protest organizers, told reporters.
The decision effectively defused a confrontation that had threatened to spill into the streets, allowing President Mohamud to project calm authority. He later dismissed the opposition group as directionless, warning the public to be wary of its “dubious intentions.”
The National Salvation Forum once presented itself as a formidable political alternative, bringing together influential figures such as former president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and ex-prime ministers Khaire, Abdi Farah Shirdon, Mohamed Hussein Roble, and Abdishakur.
But internal divisions and a lack of clear strategy have weakened its standing. The canceled protest, once seen as a show of strength, has instead exposed the Forum’s difficulty in mobilizing against a government that has consolidated control over security and institutions.
Moves beyond Mogadishu
Even as opposition efforts faltered in the capital, President Mohamud was engaged in quiet political maneuvering on another front, the federal state of Jubaland, led by regional president Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe.
Mohamud traveled to Kismayo last week for talks with Madobe, whom the federal government has accused of defying national election guidelines.
Sources close to the presidency said Mohamud tasked Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre and Interior Minister Ali Hosh with exploring plans to form a “New Jubaland” administration loyal to Mogadishu.
Two figures, Senator Abdullahi Sheikh Ismael (Fartaag) and Abdirashid Abdinur Janan, have reportedly emerged as possible contenders to lead such a structure. But Mohamed Hussei Isaq, governor of Gedo region and an ally of Madobe, vowed to resist any federal interference.
“In Jubaland, we have an established authority led by Ahmed Madobe, and no way we can accept anything imposed by Mogadishu,” Isaq told local media this week.
Analysts say Mohamud’s recent actions, halting the opposition’s momentum in Mogadishu and probing new political alignments in Jubaland, demonstrate his growing command of Somalia’s volatile political landscape.
Still, they warn that his victories may be fleeting. The grievances that fuel opposition anger remain unresolved, and regional leaders continue to challenge federal authority.
For now, President Mohamud has checked his opponents’ advance.
