The Horn of Africa region is unique for its vast economic potential and strategic location. However, the principal nation-states of the Horn—Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti—have failed to grasp the opportunities inherent in their shared destinies.
Since the post-colonial era, and especially after the end of the Cold War in 1991, the Horn of Africa remains hostage to vicious civil and ethnic conflicts, widespread poverty, and political disintegration.
One salient factor that consistently shapes the Horn’s trajectory is the absence of courageous and visionary political leaders who could steer the region and its proud peoples away from war and toward a path of mutual prosperity and security.
A key turning point
A key turning point and hopeful sign came with the 2018 joint declaration of peace and normalization of economic ties, which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia and President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea signed.
The world welcomed this as a momentous step toward unlocking the Horn’s vast economic opportunities—principally by providing Ethiopia with a stable and efficient conduit for its exports.
Eritrea also stood to benefit by becoming a new trading hub on the Red Sea. Indeed, Prime Minister Abiy received the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of the transformative implications of Ethiopia–Eritrea economic integration.
Unfortunately, since the disastrous Tigray War (2020–2022) and the subsequent deepening rift between Prime Minister Abiy and President Isaias, renewed warmongering, mutual suspicions, and accusations of domestic interference have emerged. Once again, a vicious cycle of bloodshed looms.
Yet Ethiopia and Eritrea’s leadership privately recognize the benefits of peaceful economic relations centered on a mutual port agreement. Publicly, however, both leaders have been unable to take the first steps toward realizing this consensus.
Moreover, based on recent statements from both governments, it appears that Prime Minister Abiy and President Isaias would welcome international mediation to secure a peaceful agreement on access to Eritrea’s ports along the Red Sea.
Mutual peace benefits All
A prosperous Ethiopia and Eritrea will undoubtedly anchor stability and prosperity across the greater Horn of Africa.
Already, as the Federal Government of Somalia under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has strengthened its sovereignty and degraded the Al-Shabaab insurgency—especially in Mogadishu—Ethiopia has benefited and is poised to extract oil from the Ogaden and Shilaabo fields via Djibouti’s port.
Stabilization, therefore, benefits all, while war keeps everyone poor.
Furthermore, Eritrean ports could easily become a transit hub for exporting Ethiopian and South Sudanese energy, as well as for bringing in much-needed imports. Ethiopia’s access to Eritrean ports will not diminish the prosperity of any neighboring country.
In fact, an Ethiopia–Eritrea port agreement may lead to expanded trade between Djibouti and Ethiopia, as more industrial and agricultural sectors increase exports and Djibouti’s port transforms into the main outlet for Ethiopia’s natural gas.
Likewise, the Federal Republic of Somalia, which is rapidly recovering from three decades of war and anarchy, will also benefit from an Eritrea–Ethiopia agreement, as it will aid Somalia’s post-war recovery and stabilization.
Overall, the peoples of the Horn of Africa will directly benefit from peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea, since they are already bound by shared history and kinship. The Horn’s peoples, therefore, deserve mutual prosperity, peaceful relations, and sustainable economic development.
Turkish mediation is key
I believe that the President of the Republic of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is the right mediator to bring Prime Minister Abiy and President Isaias Afwerki together for a mutually beneficial port agreement.
Both Ethiopia and Eritrea are seeking an off-ramp from their predicament: a desire for peace coupled with a lack of concrete steps toward resolution.
Türkiye is uniquely positioned to mediate a mutually acceptable port agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea for two main reasons.
First, Türkiye maintains good relations with both Addis Ababa and Asmara, making it well-placed to initiate diplomatic détente. Second, Türkiye seeks to expand its investments in Eritrea’s ports—particularly Massawa and Assab—and has consistently shown commitment to ensuring the stability of its investments in the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia.
Notably, Ankara helped broker an agreement between Prime Minister Abiy and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia last year.
However, the success of Turkish-led mediation on port access between Ethiopia and Eritrea will also require the involvement and support of international guarantors—chiefly the United States, Germany, and the European Union.
Today, there is a window of opportunity for an agreement on Red Sea ports between the Ethiopian and Eritrean leadership. Turkish mediation holds a real prospect of achieving a successful settlement that would not only benefit the Horn of Africa region but, more importantly, strengthen the Ethiopian and Eritrean economies.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Somalia Today.
