Since the re-election of Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud as President of the Federal Republic of Somalia in May 2022, his government has succeeded where all previous efforts had failed. It has defeated the Al-Shabaab insurgency that has persisted since 2008.
Today, the Somali Federal Government, led by President Hassan Sheikh and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre, is dominant. The federal government’s multi-track counterinsurgency model has curbed the Al-Shabaab insurgency in the urban core of Mogadishu and in nearby regions.
Therefore, there is no political or security urgency for the Federal Government of Somalia to negotiate with a weakened and disintegrating Al-Shabaab.
After reviewing the strategy adopted by the Federal Government of Somalia, it appears to rest on three linked priorities:
- Ensure that Al-Shabaab withers away by depriving it of its symbolic power and its ability to extort money in Mogadishu.
- Expand a sustained campaign of surgical drone strikes to decimate key Shabaab leadership in rural areas, especially in Lower Juba and the Shabelle Valley.
- Actively pursue economic development and foreign investment, especially in the oil and gas sector, via the Republic of Türkiye and American oil firms.
An irreversible blow
After three years of sustained counterintelligence, community outreach, and massive sacrifices by Somali security forces, Mogadishu is now secured from Al-Shabaab. The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) achieved this largely under the leadership of Commander Mahad Mohamed Salad.
NISA’s surveillance model and security architecture have dismantled Al-Shabaab networks and sleeper cells in Mogadishu.
Al-Shabaab has not countered NISA’s installation of thousands of CCTV cameras. Nor has it matched the deployment of undercover plainclothes agents. NISA has also integrated digital tracking software for vehicles, persons, and money transfers within the city.
The result is unprecedented security in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab is now largely confined to shrinking pockets of the rural countryside. Even there, it faces unrelenting drone strikes by the United States and Türkiye. At the same time, it remains unable to attack Mogadishu and other major Somali urban centers.
Federal constraints
As a collective political organization, or even as a civilian political party, Al-Shabaab operates under tight constraints. Somalia’s clan-based political system is constrained by the 2012 Provisional Constitution, which established a federal republican system.
This clan-based power-sharing dispensation, since 2012, at both federal and member-state levels, is the single most potent factor undermining Al-Shabaab’s political future in Somalia.
As a result, Al-Shabaab leaders can only seek political positions as individuals through the clan-based power-sharing formula.
In other words, the 2012 Provisional Constitution recognizes only individual citizens and federal entities. Therefore, constitutionally, Al-Shabaab as an organization cannot access political power as a collective.
The Algerian outcome
After observing the political and security successes of the federal government since 2022, I strongly believe the fate of Al-Shabaab in Somalia will mirror the Algerian Islamist insurgency of the 1990s.
From 2004 to 2008, Algeria, under President Abdelaziz Bouteflika (1937–2021), defeated the Islamist insurgency through a combination of military force, counterintelligence, urban surveillance, and economic growth.
In essence, Bouteflika paired military operations, surveillance, and community policing with the expansion of the oil and gas sector.
Consequently, the Algerian state first pushed the insurgency into the countryside. It then liquidated it as a threat after a decade of bloody massacres.
Similarly, the Somali Federal Government under President Hassan Sheikh is pursuing the same counterinsurgency model against Al-Shabaab in Somalia. More importantly, it appears to be working.
Conclusion ahead
Looking ahead to the 2026 presidential election in Somalia, even if President Hassan Sheikh is not re-elected, his successor—whether former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo or a previously unknown Somali political actor—will maintain the current counterinsurgency model.
The key security and surveillance infrastructure in Mogadishu will remain intact for the foreseeable future. That continuity will only accelerate the Algerian outcome for Al-Shabaab.
Ironically, Al-Shabaab dominated the federal government from 2010 to 2022. During that period, Al-Shabaab’s leadership failed to capitalize on political negotiations with the weakened Transitional Federal Government and its successor, the Federal Government of Somalia.
However, the new political and security realities in Mogadishu now make it possible for the Federal Government of Somalia, under President Hassan Sheikh, to end negotiations with a degraded Al-Shabaab.
Instead, the federal government under President Hassan Sheikh prefers the Algerian outcome for Al-Shabaab rather than negotiations.
At the recent Doha Forum, a confident Hassan Sheikh declared to Western and Arab diplomats his views on negotiations, stating:
“The Al-Shabaab leadership should seek political and social reintegration in Somalia through their respective clans and Federal Member States. As per the 2012 Constitution, there is no better deal on the table for them.”
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Somalia Today.
