Tel Aviv (Somalia Today) – Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland could pave the way for an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) base in the breakaway region, a move analysts say would significantly alter the strategic balance in the Red Sea.
Following the December 26 recognition—the first by any nation globally—discussions between the two sides have shifted rapidly toward security cooperation.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, speaking after a January 6 meeting with Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, said the two sides would “cooperate on defense and develop a strategic partnership.”
While officials in Hargeisa have remained publicly cautious, with Waddani party chairman Hersi Ali Haji Hassan noting the issue would be addressed “when the time comes,” reports indicate that officials are actively considering access to military facilities.
Israeli media quoted a senior official at Somaliland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs as confirming that a military basing agreement “is on the table and being discussed.”
Strategic shift
Military planners are focusing on the Berbera International Airport, a facility whose location offers a distinct tactical advantage.
An analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) indicates that an Israeli presence at the site would reduce the flight distance to Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen to approximately 550 kilometers (340 miles).
Current operations from bases in Israel require flights of at least 1,800 kilometers to reach targets in Yemen, often necessitating complex mid-air refueling.
Access to Berbera would cut these ranges by roughly 70 percent, the IISS report said.
Operating from the Horn of Africa would shorten Israeli Air Force response times against the Houthi movement, also known as Ansarullah, and enhance intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities over the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea.
The location would also allow the IDF to deploy shorter-range drones for maritime monitoring, reducing reliance on long-range assets to secure shipping lanes that have faced persistent disruption.
Soviet legacy
The Soviet Union originally constructed the airport at Berbera in the mid-1970s, giving it a long history of strategic utility.
Featuring a 4,000-meter runway, the site served as a designated emergency landing site for NASA’s Space Shuttle program between 1980 and 1991.
While authorities declared the facility open to global trade in March 2025 following upgrades under a Somaliland-United Arab Emirates agreement, commercial traffic has remained limited.
Recent satellite imagery suggests that construction activity has shifted toward military applications.
Analysis of the site reveals that construction has accelerated since late 2023. Crews have expanded three semi-buried storage areas, featuring berms consistent with fuel and ammunition depots, the IISS said.
Workers erected additional aircraft shelters by early 2024 and expanded the airport’s apron in late 2025.
Imagery from January 2026 shows new hangar-like structures, while defense experts assess raised earth platforms built in October 2025 as potential positions for mobile air-defense systems.
The facility’s limited commercial use has fueled speculation that Somaliland intends it for foreign military access.
The United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) has also shown interest in the site, with commanders visiting Berbera in 2022 and again in June 2025 amid ongoing regional security assessments.
Regional risks
The potential arrangement faces significant diplomatic and security hurdles in a volatile region.
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but lacks international recognition, except from Israel. Mogadishu continues to regard the territory as an integral part of Somalia and has expressed strong opposition to the Israeli move.
The Somalia-based Al-Shabaab militant group has issued statements opposing any foreign military use of the territory.
Security analysts warn that this raises the risk of attacks targeting the port of Berbera, which serves as Somaliland’s main economic hub.
The Houthis in Yemen have also threatened to target any Israeli presence established in Somaliland.
Diplomatically, an Israeli military foothold in the Horn of Africa could strain relations with regional powers, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, who maintain complex interests in the Red Sea corridor.
The IISS analysis noted that for Somaliland, hosting Israeli forces carries the risk of deepening international isolation from the African Union, even as the territory seeks to cement its sovereignty through the partnership with Israel.
