Mukalla (Somalia Today) — UAE-backed separatists in Yemen announced on Friday they will hold a referendum on independence after a two-year transition, a dramatic escalation in a proxy war where Saudi Arabia has launched airstrikes against its nominal allies in the country’s strategic east.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), which controls the temporary capital Aden and recently seized vast swathes of the south, said the “transitional phase” will end with a vote on “self-determination” to restore the independent state that existed before 1990.
STC President Aidaros al-Zubaidi made the announcement as some of the deadliest infighting yet erupted between the two main pillars of the anti-Houthi coalition, laying bare a rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that threatens to permanently fracture the country.
Ultimatum to Riyadh
In a televised address, al-Zubaidi called on the international community to sponsor dialogue between the south and the north. He also issued a stark ultimatum, warning that the “constitutional declaration” for independence could take effect immediately if the political process stalled or if southern territory faced further military aggression.
“This constitutional declaration shall be considered immediately and directly effective… if the people of the South, their land, or their forces are subjected to any military attacks,” he added.
STC spokesperson Anwar al-Tamimi said the move aligns with international law and that the STC prepared it “regardless of the movements of the National Shield,” a Saudi-funded militia recently deployed to check separatist influence.
The political bombshell landed as violence surged in Hadhramaut, an oil-rich province bordering Saudi Arabia that has become the center of the confrontation.
On Friday, Saudi-backed forces launched an operation to retake territory the separatists seized in early December, and warplanes hit STC positions near Seiyun’s airport and a military base in the Hadhramaut valley.
An STC military official told AFP that the strikes killed at least 29 STC fighters and wounded more than 20 others. Another STC official said separate attacks on another camp killed 20. Saudi officials did not immediately comment on the strikes.
Hadhramaut’s Governor Salem al-Khanbashi, a key Riyadh ally, urged the STC to abandon “military confrontation” but said his forces, backed by local tribes and air power, had recaptured a key base. The province carries deep cultural significance for the kingdom, and many prominent Saudis trace their lineage there.
Gulf rift explodes
The fighting has laid bare the collapse of the anti-Houthi alliance. For a decade, Saudi Arabia and the UAE fought ostensibly on the same side, but their interests have sharply diverged.
The rupture went public on December 30 when the Saudi-led coalition bombed the port of Mukalla, targeting what it called a UAE-linked weapons shipment bound for the STC. The UAE said it was surprised, denied the cargo contained weapons, and said it was destined for Emirati forces.
The crisis deepened when Yemen’s Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) demanded Emirati forces leave the country within 24 hours. The UAE then said it was voluntarily ending its remaining counterterrorism mission in Yemen.
As tensions mounted, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held urgent calls with the foreign ministers of both Gulf states, urging de-escalation.
The diplomatic fallout has already disrupted critical infrastructure. Aden International Airport halted flights on January 1 after a dispute over flight inspections.
The STC-controlled transport ministry accused Riyadh of imposing extra inspections via Jeddah, while Saudi sources said the Yemeni government ordered the limits, prompting the STC to shut down all air traffic in retaliation. The closure has left hundreds of passengers stranded, including Yemenis seeking urgent medical treatment abroad.
Failed unity deals
The STC’s push for statehood effectively shreds the 2019 Riyadh Agreement, a Saudi-brokered deal meant to integrate separatist forces into state structures.
It also undermines the Presidential Leadership Council, created in 2022 to unify anti-Houthi factions. Analysts say the council has struggled with the very divisions it was designed to solve.
The infighting gives the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels a strategic opening, as they still control the capital Sanaa and the territory home to nearly two-thirds of Yemen’s population.
The STC’s move also draws inspiration from recent geopolitical shifts. The announcement follows Israel’s unilateral recognition of Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, as an independent state on December 26.
While legally distinct, the Somaliland precedent—occurring just across the Gulf of Aden—has heightened sensitivities around secession in a region where Gulf states, Israel, and Iran all vie for influence.
As the humanitarian toll mounts—with the UN estimating 23.1 million Yemenis will need aid in 2026—the prospect of a “civil war within a civil war” looms larger than ever.
