Mogadishu (Somalia Today) – Former Somali information minister Zakaria Mahmoud Haji Abdi has warned that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is not an isolated diplomatic move, but part of a wider strategy to reshape influence across the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa and the Arab world.
In an interview with Egypt Independent, Zakaria said the region should view Israel’s move towards Somaliland alongside the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, Sudan’s collapse, Somalia’s long-running instability and tensions around Iran.
He said Israel was exploiting Arab divisions and weak regional states to expand its strategic reach.
“Israel sees Iran as a rival that challenges it, and this has laid the foundation for decades of hostility between the two sides,” Zakaria said. “If Iran is ultimately neutralised, Israel will continue pursuing its next objectives.”
On December 26, Israel became the first country to formally recognise Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state. Somalia rejected the decision as an attack on its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The African Union also rejected the move and reaffirmed its support for Somalia’s unity. Egypt, Turkey and Djibouti also criticised the recognition.
Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991 after the collapse of the central government in Mogadishu, but no UN member state had recognised it before Israel’s move.
Wider blueprintÂ
Zakaria said regional states should not treat Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a routine diplomatic decision.
“The objective is simply to control the Red Sea and establish influence over it,” he said.
“Israel seeks dominance over maritime corridors, and this forms part of its broader strategic map in a way that threatens Arab states bordering the Red Sea, including Egypt, because of the Suez Canal.”
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Hargeisa on January 6, days after the recognition, and met Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi.
Israel and Somaliland discussed broad bilateral relations. Somalia condemned the visit as unlawful interference in its sovereignty.
Both Israel and Somaliland have denied that the recognition involved military arrangements or Gaza-related resettlement plans.
For Zakaria, however, the timing and geography of the move remain central.
Somaliland’s Berbera port sits near the Gulf of Aden and across from Yemen, where Houthi attacks have disrupted Red Sea shipping since the Gaza war.
The corridor links the Indian Ocean, Bab al-Mandab, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, making it one of the world’s most sensitive maritime routes.
Clark’s warningÂ
Zakaria also invoked past remarks by retired US General Wesley Clark, who said in 2007 that, after the September 11 attacks, a senior Pentagon officer told him of a plan targeting seven countries: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran.
Zakaria used Clark’s remarks to support his broader argument that the world should not view Somalia as a separate crisis, but as part of a wider regional pattern.
“Here, I refer again to the remarks of retired US General Wesley Clark regarding the fragmentation of seven states: Somalia, Sudan, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran,” Zakaria said.
He said the war on Iran formed part of what he called “the restructuring of the Middle East in Israel’s favour,” warning that if Tehran were neutralised, Israel would gain greater freedom to act across the region.
“What is happening in Gaza and Lebanon, the Israeli discourse surrounding buffer zones, and the operations of forced displacement are all part of a broader strategy,” he said.
Arab silenceÂ
Zakaria strongly criticised Arab governments, saying they had failed to use even basic diplomatic leverage to defend Gaza, Lebanon, Sudan and Somalia.
“The Arabs have not even used the minimum level of their diplomatic leverage, let alone their other instruments of power,” he said.
He said Arab states did not need a unified military force to respond, but should at least build a common political and diplomatic position through the United Nations and friendly countries.
“When I hear firm positions from countries such as Spain and Ireland toward Israel, I feel ashamed, as the Arab stance appears far less resolute,” Zakaria said.
He warned that if Gaza and Lebanon remained vulnerable, Israel would deepen its penetration across the region, especially in weak or divided states on the periphery.
“Any state seeking to wage war against another does not begin with the core; it begins with the peripheries,” he said. “Israel has already targeted the peripheral Arab states first, and now the focus is shifting toward the Arab heartland.”
Somalia’s warningÂ
Zakaria said Somalia’s strategic location means its collapse carries consequences far beyond its borders.
“Somalia’s fragility threatens the security of the Red Sea and international maritime navigation,” he said.
He cited the piracy crisis of the late 2000s, including the hijacking of a Saudi oil tanker carrying nearly two million barrels of oil, as an early warning that Somalia’s instability could threaten global shipping.
“Piracy should serve as an alarm bell for both the region and the world,” he said.
Zakaria called for a unified Arab position and stronger international support to help Somalia build a centralised national state that can control its territory, protect its coastline and prevent outside powers from exploiting Somali fragmentation.
“What is required, before it is too late, is the formulation of a unified Arab strategy, at the very least politically and diplomatically, to restore balance to the regional landscape,” he said.
