Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Why Museveni’s Indian Ocean remarks alarmed Kenya

By Ahmed Ali Sheikh

Nairobi (Somalia Today) — Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni’s recent comments that the Indian Ocean “belongs” to Uganda have sparked more than jokes and internet memes in Kenya. They also stirred unease about borders, sea access, and the fragile balance that underpins regional trade and security in East Africa.

The Ugandan leader has since said he was calling for stronger East African security cooperation, not a redrawn coastline. Even so, his language pushed Nairobi to respond and reassure both lawmakers and the public that there will be no clash between the two neighbours.

An off-the-cuff remark goes viral

Museveni first raised the issue while campaigning in eastern Uganda. He complained that landlocked states face unfair obstacles when they try to trade or build navies.

He argued that Uganda has a natural right to reach the sea and likened landlocked countries to tenants on the top floor of an apartment block who should still share the building’s compound.

“That [Indian] Ocean belongs to me. I am entitled to that ocean,” he said, before asking how Uganda could build a navy without a coastline. Clips of the speech spread quickly across social media, triggering a wave of satire.

In Kenya, the reaction was instant. Memes, redrawn maps, and comic skits mocked the idea that a landlocked country could claim the sea by analogy.

Commentators pointed out that Uganda already benefits from Lake Victoria and other waterways. They argued that geography cannot be rewritten through metaphors.

Satire over deeper sovereignty fears

Behind the humour lay a more serious concern in Nairobi: loose talk about entitlement to the ocean could chip away at hard-won understandings over borders and transit rights.

The region has a record of sharp disputes over small pieces of territory, including the Migingo Island row on Lake Victoria that once brought Kenyan and Ugandan security forces close to confrontation.

Kenya’s port of Mombasa is a vital gateway for Uganda’s imports and exports, and frictions over access to the surface whenever trade or fuel policies shift.

Uganda’s recent decision to let the state-owned Uganda National Oil Company import fuel directly from refineries abroad, bypassing Kenyan intermediaries, added an economic edge to these anxieties.

Against that backdrop, talk of being “entitled” to the Indian Ocean sounded to some Kenyan politicians less like a theoretical complaint and more like pressure on a critical national asset.

Even when he framed the remarks as a call for fairness, they touched a raw nerve on the issue of sovereignty.

Mudavadi moves to calm Parliament

Kenya’s Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs Minister Musalia Mudavadi quickly stepped into the debate.

Addressing lawmakers in Nairobi, he said Kenya has never blocked Uganda or any other landlocked neighbour from using its territory to reach the sea and would not change that policy.

Mudavadi told Parliament that Kenya had “no intention” of going to war with Uganda and would continue to provide safe passage for goods, in line with international and African Union obligations.

He also warned that speculative or provocative statements could inflame public opinion or be misread as threats, and urged leaders to choose their words carefully.

His remarks aimed to reassure domestic and regional audiences that Nairobi remains committed to diplomacy, even as political rhetoric grows sharper.

Museveni: Message was EAC security

Museveni has since tried to reframe the controversy. After talks with Mudavadi, he said his comments did not amount to a territorial claim on Kenya’s or Tanzania’s coastline. Instead, he said he wanted to highlight what he sees as weak collective security planning in the East African Community (EAC).

“The issue of strategic security is where I talked about the Indian Ocean,” he said. He noted that even within the EAC, each country still plans its defence separately.

Uganda has its own military, Kenya has its own, and the bloc has no joint naval strategy for the shared coastline.

Museveni argued that global powers such as the United States, China, Russia, and India combine advanced space, technology, and naval capabilities. At the same time, African states remain divided and therefore vulnerable.

He presented political federation and closer defence integration as his real goal. He said a unified East Africa would be better placed to defend common interests, including maritime corridors.

Law of the sea versus ownership claims

International law offers some support for Museveni’s core grievance but not for the language of entitlement.

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), landlocked states have the right to access and use the sea for international trade, and coastal neighbours must allow freedom of transit.

For Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, and Burundi, that framework means Kenya and Tanzania should provide routes to ports such as Mombasa and Dar es Salaam, subject to practical agreements on tariffs and customs. However, these rights stop short of owning coastal territory or exercising sovereignty over another state’s shoreline.

Legal experts say the distinction matters. Landlocked countries can insist on fair and predictable transit regimes, argue for lower costs and faster customs procedures, and seek joint investments in rail or pipeline projects. They cannot, under UNCLOS, claim someone else’s sea as their own.

A wider East African debate

Museveni’s remarks tap into a wider East African debate about how to balance landlocked economies’ frustrations with coastal states’ control over key chokepoints.

Ethiopia’s push for better sea access to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and recurring tensions over port deals in the region, show how quickly such questions can escalate if leaders do not manage them carefully.

For now, the Ugandan leader insists he is calling for solidarity, not confrontation. Kenyan officials say they remain committed to keeping trade routes open and peaceful.

Yet the episode shows how a single metaphor about apartments and compounds can reopen old anxieties about borders, resources, and power in a region that still remembers how minor disputes, from islands to customs checks, can grow into major diplomatic headaches.

Ahmed Ali Sheikh
Ahmed Ali Sheikh
Ahmed Ali Sheikh is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of Somalia Today and also founded Caasimada Online. A former VOA journalist and McClatchy stringer, he has over 15 years’ experience covering politics, security and society.

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