Addis Ababa (Somalia Today) — Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia are rising over a reported Somali plan to create a new administration in its Gedo border region. The dispute dominated an unannounced visit by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to Addis Ababa last week.
Mohamud met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed from Sunday, October 12, to Monday, October 13. The meeting followed reports days earlier that Mogadishu had activated a “Plan B” to take control of Gedo after reconciliation talks with its Jubaland federal state collapsed.
Ethiopia allegedly views the plan as a “threat to its national security,” according to Somalia Today sources. The plan’s emergence complicates a fragile détente. In December 2024, the two nations signed the Ankara Declaration, pledging to respect each other’s “sovereignty, unity … and territorial integrity.”
Ethiopia and Somalia have a complex history, including the 1977–78 Ogaden War. Ethiopia is a major security partner, contributing 2,500 troops to the new AU mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). But analysts say the current sticking point is Ethiopia’s deep security interest in its border, which now clashes with Mogadishu’s reported push to centralize control.
Mogadishu’s ‘Plan B’
The crisis began after talks in Kismayo between President Mohamud and Jubaland’s leader, Ahmed Madobe, broke down on October 5.
Following the breakdown, Mogadishu’s leadership approved a plan to form a new, parallel administration for Jubaland, which would be based in Garbaharey, a town in the Gedo region, according to Somalia Today sources and other Somali outlets.
President Mohamud reportedly told officials the Kismayo talks were a “dead end,” adding, “The era of unconstitutional administrations is over.”
Mogadishu has not yet made an official announcement regarding the plan. The Federal Government of Somalia did not immediately respond to Somalia Today’s requests for comment on the reported plan. Jubaland’s Kismayo-based authorities are expected to reject any parallel administration.
Ethiopia’s security concerns
Ethiopia strongly opposes the Gedo plan, sources told Somalia Today. To demonstrate its seriousness, Addis Ababa recently sent military and intelligence officials to Dollow, a Somali border town in the Gedo region, according to those accounts.
The dispute is entangled in wider geopolitical rivalries, including the long-running feud between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
President Mohamud has made several trips to Cairo, and regional media have alleged the nations are engaged in a “proxy war.” Sources allege that Mogadishu “wants to hand over the Gedo region to the Egyptians.” However, this claim has not been officially confirmed.
Egypt’s involvement in Somalia has grown. The first contingent of Egyptian troops completed training in August 2025 to join the new AUSSOM, and reports indicate Somalia plans to deploy them to regions bordering Ethiopia, including Gedo.
Kenya is also monitoring the situation after a Kenyan delegation’s efforts to mediate the Kismayo talks faltered, diplomatic sources said. Nairobi has long relied on Jubaland and Madobe as a critical buffer zone against the Al-Shabaab terror group.
In a move seen as a signal to Mogadishu, Prime Minister Abiy held separate talks with Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi Irro — president of the breakaway Somaliland republic — who arrived in Addis Ababa just hours after Mohamud’s departure on Monday.
Analysts view the back-to-back meetings as evidence of intensifying diplomacy and shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa.
