Washington (Somalia Today) — US President Donald Trump said Friday he was ready to restart American mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to resolve their long-running dispute over Nile water sharing, a feud sharpened by Ethiopia’s vast Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
In a letter dated January 16 and addressed to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Trump said he wanted to settle the “Nile Water Sharing” question “once and for all.”
Writing “in the spirit of our personal friendship,” he argued that no state in the region should “unilaterally control” the river’s resources and “disadvantage its neighbors in the process.”
Trump praised Sisi for helping broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, recognizing Sisi’s “steady role in managing the many security and humanitarian challenges” since October 2023.
He then pivoted to the Nile, saying he and his team “understand the deep significance of the Nile River to Egypt and its people.”
Trump’s deal promise
Trump also said Washington could help deliver an agreement through “technical expertise,” fair and transparent negotiations, and a “strong United States role in monitoring and coordinating between parties.”
He sketched a trade-off he said could unlock a deal: predictable water releases during droughts and prolonged dry years for Egypt and Sudan, alongside stable operating conditions that allow Ethiopia to generate “very substantial amounts of electricity.”
Trump suggested some power could be “given, or sold” to Egypt and Sudan.
In a notable handwritten flourish on the second page of the correspondence, Trump emphasized the urgency of the crisis, writing that “resolving the tensions… is at the very top of my agenda.”
“I very much hope that this truly understandable dispute over the GERD (DAM!) will not lead to major Military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia,” Trump wrote, capitalizing “DAM!” for emphasis.
Trump copied a roster of regional leaders, including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Ethiopia’s President Taye Atske Selassie, and Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
The White House did not immediately say whether Ethiopia had accepted the US offer, or when Washington might seek to convene talks.
Dam at full capacity
The GERD sits on the Blue Nile, a major tributary of the Nile River, near Ethiopia’s border with Sudan. Ethiopia says the dam is vital to electrification and industrial growth.
Egypt calls it an existential threat if filling and operations are not governed by enforceable rules, especially in drought years.
Ethiopia formally inaugurated the project in September 2025 and said it had reached maximum generation capacity of about 5,150 megawatts, making it Africa’s largest hydroelectric facility and one of the world’s biggest.
Addis Ababa insists the project will not harm downstream neighbors and frames the dam as a symbol of national development.
Cairo, which relies on the Nile for the bulk of its freshwater, has pressed for a binding agreement that sets out clear procedures for reservoir filling, day-to-day operations, and dispute resolution.
Sudan shares Egypt’s concern about drought-time flows and dam safety, but it has also said the GERD could bring benefits, including flood control and access to cheaper imported electricity, if the reservoir is coordinated with downstream systems.
Negotiations keep stalling
Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have been negotiating for more than a decade without reaching a final agreement. Talks have repeatedly broken down over core issues, including how much water Ethiopia should release during multi-year droughts and whether commitments should be legally binding.
The African Union has led several rounds of negotiations. The dispute has also landed at the United Nations, which has urged the parties to resume talks under AU auspices.
In December 2023, Egypt said the latest round of negotiations had ended without agreement and warned it reserved the right, under international law, to defend its water and national security if it suffered harm.
Trump’s letter seeks to revive a mediation track that collapsed during his first term.
In early 2020, the United States and the World Bank hosted negotiations and issued a joint statement outlining areas of convergence, including mechanisms for annual and long-term operation, information sharing, and dispute resolution.
Ethiopia later pulled back from the US-led process, and the talks failed, pushing negotiations back to the African Union.
Trump’s credibility in Addis Ababa has also been complicated by his past rhetoric. In 2020, he drew condemnation in Ethiopia after suggesting Egypt would eventually “blow up” the dam, comments that Ethiopian officials denounced as inflammatory.
His latest letter, however, adopts a more conciliatory tone, signing off with “friendship and partnership” and thanking Sisi for his attention to the matter.
Possible deal terms
At the center of the dispute is the river’s risk profile in lean years. Egypt wants predictability and enforceable safeguards when rainfall is low.
Ethiopia wants flexibility to operate the dam in ways that protect power generation and economic planning, and it resists terms it views as locking in outdated allocations.
Analysts say any durable agreement would likely need technical triggers that define drought and prolonged drought, specify minimum releases, and set up monitoring, data-sharing, and verification — the kind of architecture Trump highlighted in his letter.
Trump presented US involvement as a stabilizing layer. He said American oversight and coordination could help the parties reach a settlement that protects downstream water security while allowing Ethiopia to monetize electricity at scale.
Whether the region’s politics will allow it remains uncertain. The GERD has become a central symbol of sovereignty and development in Ethiopia.
In Egypt, the Nile is a national lifeline and a core security file. Each government has treated the dispute as a test of strategic endurance.
For now, Trump has put Washington back on the board — and challenged Cairo and Addis Ababa to decide whether they want a new round of talks, and on what terms.
