Mogadishu (Somalia Today) — Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud skipped a key regional summit in Nairobi this week amid growing tensions with the semi-autonomous Jubaland region, a sign of deepening political fractures that could strain Mogadishu’s ties with neighbouring Kenya, Somalia Today has learned.
Mohamud declined to attend the 24th Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) heads of state summit held in Nairobi on October 9, sending his trade minister instead, according to Somali officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to brief the media.
While Villa Somalia offered no official explanation for the president’s absence, multiple political sources said the decision followed the collapse of reconciliation talks between the federal government and Jubaland authorities in the southern port city of Kismayo.
Kenya had mediated the negotiations, which ended Sunday without agreement.
Talks collapse in Kismayo
The Kismayo negotiations broke down over the legitimacy of Jubaland leader Ahmed Madobe’s recent re-election. President Mohamud demanded that Madobe annul the contested vote. Madobe insisted on its formal recognition as a precondition for further dialogue, sources familiar with the talks said.
“The decision was political,” a senior government insider told Somalia Today. “Villa Somalia believes regional interference has prolonged the Jubaland standoff.”
Relations between Mogadishu and Kismayo have long been strained over control of security forces and local elections. Kenya is widely viewed in Somalia as a key backer of Madobe, whose forces continue to receive logistical and technical support from Nairobi.
Following the failed talks, President Mohamud reportedly instructed Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre to begin forming a new interim administration for Jubaland, viewing Madobe’s government as illegitimate.
Officials told Somalia Today the plan, known internally as “Plan B,” aims to be completed within 45 days. Federal insiders said Mohamud has proposed Interior Minister Abdullahi Sheikh Ismail Fartaag, a lawmaker from Gedo, as a potential new leader of Jubaland. Former security chief Abdirashid Janan is expected to assume the federal security portfolio in Mogadishu.
Abdirashid Janan, a prominent Gedo politician, publicly confirmed the government’s intentions. Speaking to local elders on Wednesday, he said, “We are building a Jubaland administration that serves all its people and answers to Mogadishu, not to Nairobi or Addis Ababa.”
He urged residents to prepare for the creation of the new administration, saying Gedo, now under federal control, would lead efforts to establish a “Jubaland of its own” aligned with the central government.
Jubaland warns of new conflict
Ahmed Madobe convened his cabinet in Kismayo on Friday, denouncing what he called a “dangerous and unconstitutional attempt” to establish a parallel authority.
His ministers warned that any “illegal administrative activities” in Gedo could trigger violence. “The federal government will bear full responsibility for any bloodshed,” a Jubaland communiqué stated.
The standoff risks reigniting conflict in southern Somalia, where clan rivalries and the presence of al-Shabaab complicate governance. Analysts warn that forming a rival administration could fracture fragile security alliances vital to counter insurgency operations.
“Such a move risks weakening the joint security structure that underpins operations against al-Shabaab,” Said Ahmed Abdi, a Mogadishu-based analyst. “It could hand the militants new opportunities to exploit local divisions.”
The escalating political showdown also threatens to undermine Somalia’s relationship with Kenya, whose troops operate under the African Union security mission in Jubaland. Mogadishu has long accused Nairobi of backing Madobe to maintain leverage in the border region, an allegation Kenya denies.
The federal government is expected to dispatch a delegation led by Minister Fartaag to Gedo in the coming days to begin setting up the new administration. The step is likely to further heighten political tension.
