Baidoa (Somalia Today) — The collapse of South West State’s leadership in the strategic city of Baidoa shows that Addis Ababa is rapidly losing influence in Somalia, prominent Ethiopian opposition figure Jawar Mohammed has claimed, branding the episode “another diplomatic failure”.
The assertion follows the dramatic resignation on Monday of regional president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, widely known as Laftagareen.
Long viewed as one of Ethiopia’s closest allies inside Somalia, Laftagareen stepped down after federal troops entered his regional capital, marking one of the sharpest reversals yet in Somalia’s widening federal-regional power struggle.
In a statement published on Tuesday, Jawar argued that Laftagareen had been decisively outmanoeuvred by the federal government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
Jawar alleged that Mogadishu’s success exposed the limits of Ethiopian protection, claiming the Somali regional leader had secretly travelled to Ethiopia just days before his downfall.
False Ethiopian promise
“Even though Laftagareen came to Addis Ababa to consult (Prime Minister) Abiy and returned last week after being given words of assurance, the Ethiopian army in the region’s capital could not save him,” Jawar said in a statement published in Amharic.
“Because of this, the strategic city of Baidoa is out of the control of the Ethiopian army after 20 years, and it is expected that Ethiopia’s influence will be replaced by Egypt and Turkey,” he added.
Some of Jawar’s sharper claims, including assertions that Mogadishu received direct Egyptian and Turkish military backing during the Baidoa standoff, could not be independently verified.
What is independently documented is the rapid collapse of Laftagareen’s authority. Somalia’s national army took control of Baidoa on March 30, just days after Laftagareen orchestrated a disputed re-election for another five-year term.
The federal government in Mogadishu said its forces had been welcomed into the city, accusing the outgoing South West administration of deliberately stoking political conflict.
The showdown did not come out of nowhere. On March 17, South West State formally severed ties with Mogadishu, accusing the federal government of arming rival militias.
The rupture was rooted in a fierce dispute over sweeping constitutional amendments backed by Mohamud’s government, escalating so rapidly that commercial flights between Mogadishu and Baidoa were halted.
Fallout from the MoU
Jawar’s intervention carries weight because it connects the local fall of Baidoa to a major regional geopolitical contest.
Relations between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu have been in a tailspin since January 2024, when Ethiopia signed a controversial memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the breakaway region of Somaliland.
The deal, which granted landlocked Ethiopia access to the Red Sea, infuriated Somalia.
“Let us remember that the origin of all this was the obsession with recognising Somaliland and taking a port, which was attempted without any strategic readiness,” Jawar wrote.
He argued that this “madness” had pushed the Somali federal government firmly into the orbit of Egypt and Turkey, while Addis Ababa’s close ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had inadvertently invited Saudi Arabia to align with the opposing camp.
Cairo subsequently delivered heavy arms to Mogadishu and pledged to contribute troops to the new African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).
Gulf rivalries
Adding another layer to the regional contest, Jawar pointed to the UAE’s reduced room for manoeuvre in Somalia.
He claimed that the UAE, which had closely collaborated with Ethiopia to back the autonomous Somali region of Puntland, was recently “forced to dismantle its drone and intelligence base in the port of Bosaso” due to mounting pressure from Saudi Arabia and Mogadishu.
In January 2026, Somalia formally annulled all security, defence and port agreements with Abu Dhabi, accusing the UAE of undermining its sovereignty.
Against this turbulent regional backdrop, Somalia’s internal federal compact is tearing at the seams far beyond South West State. Puntland announced in March 2024 that it no longer recognised the federal government over the constitutional dispute, while Jubaland suspended ties in November 2024.
However, Jawar argued that the federal victory in Baidoa served as a glaring warning to other defiant regions. The federal government’s actions, he said, sent a clear message to Puntland’s leadership: “The Emirates and Ethiopia will not save you.”
For now, the immediate significance of Jawar’s message lies in what Baidoa has come to symbolise for the broader Horn of Africa.
To Mogadishu, the capture of Baidoa will undoubtedly be framed as proof that the federal centre can still impose its will on defiant regional leaders.
But for critics of Abiy Ahmed, the fall of Laftagareen is evidence that Addis Ababa’s aggressive Somalia policy has backfired.
“Ultimately, without getting the port, we multiplied and united our adversaries,” Jawar concluded. “We diminished our influence in the Horn of Africa and exposed many of our national interests to harm.”
