Dhusamareb (Somalia Today) – Somalia’s federal government has moved to strip Galmudug President Ahmed Abdi Kariye of control over key security forces, deepening a political rift that threatens to turn the central state into the next flashpoint in a disputed electoral transition.
Security sources said police, intelligence and military units across Galmudug have received direct orders to bypass the regional leader, widely known as Qoor-Qoor. Operational command is now expected to flow directly from Mogadishu.
The directive marks a sharp escalation between Villa Somalia and a regional leader long considered one of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s closest political allies.
The standoff closely mirrors a recent power struggle in South West State, which ended with federal forces seizing control of Baidoa and forcing regional leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen from office after a disputed re-election.
Political rivalry
The Galmudug crisis centres on the state’s upcoming July presidential election.
Qoor-Qoor and National Intelligence and Security Agency Director Mahad Mohamed Salad, both from the powerful Habargidir clan, are locked in a fierce contest to represent the Justice and Solidarity Party, Mohamud’s ruling political vehicle.
Political sources said Qoor-Qoor has spent months lobbying for JSP backing for a second term, leaning heavily on his years of close cooperation with the federal president.
But those efforts have largely faltered, with Villa Somalia reportedly throwing its weight behind Mahad or a proxy candidate aligned with the intelligence chief.
Mahad, widely regarded as one of Mohamud’s most powerful political operators, is seeking either to take the Galmudug presidency himself or install federal lawmaker Saabir Nuur Shuuriye, sources familiar with the matter said.
Sources close to the negotiations said Mohamud endorsed Mahad’s position this week, agreeing that the central state requires a political overhaul.
The president had previously given Mahad a firm commitment over the Galmudug leadership, explaining JSP’s recent hesitation to endorse Qoor-Qoor for the upcoming ballot.
Command dispute
The political standoff has now rapidly militarised.
Mogadishu recently appointed Col. Mohamed Dahir Abdulle as the new Galmudug police commander, replacing Qoor-Qoor loyalist Senior Col. Khalif Abdulle Maalin.
Qoor-Qoor swiftly rejected the directive and reinstated Khalif, triggering a dispute over the chain of command between the regional capital, Dhusamareb, and the federal government.
Mohamed Dahir, and Galmudug’s deputy police commander, identified by sources as Kaniif, are scheduled to travel to Dhusamareb for critical talks with federal security officers.
Their arrival will serve as a major test of whether local forces submit to Mogadishu’s orders or continue to recognise Qoor-Qoor’s authority.
Dhusamareb is already heavily under federal military influence.
Security sources say local police, intelligence and army units draw their salaries and operational instructions directly from the federal government, alongside elite Danab, Gorgor and Djiboutian troops stationed around the city’s airport.
No regional force of comparable strength remains strictly under Galmudug’s independent control inside the city.
In response, Qoor-Qoor has launched a sweeping political and military mobilisation across major Galmudug towns, including Guriceel, Dhusamareb, Adado and Bahdo, to resist what his allies view as a coordinated, Villa Somalia-backed coup.
He has also heavily reinforced defensive positions around Dhusamareb’s Ugaas Nuur airport to deter any fresh federal troop deployments into the regional capital.
Echoes of Baidoa
The escalating crisis comes just weeks after a fierce confrontation in South West State ended with federal forces seizing Baidoa.
That standoff forced Laftagareen to resign on March 30, mere days after his disputed re-election.
That stark precedent now casts a long shadow over Galmudug.
Critics of Villa Somalia argue a clear pattern is emerging: a bitter dispute over elections and constitutional amendments, followed by a challenge to the regional leader’s mandate, culminating in a federal takeover of local security structures.
The timing is highly sensitive. Somalia’s electoral commission has slated Galmudug and neighbouring Hirshabelle to hold local council and parliamentary elections in June, followed by presidential polls in July.
The federal government maintains that the rapid timeline forms a necessary part of Somalia’s long-delayed shift towards universal suffrage and direct elections.
But opposition figures and several regional leaders accuse Villa Somalia of weaponising the electoral transition to centralise executive power and systematically dismantle federal member states.
Risk of confrontation
Seeking to avert a violent clash in Dhusamareb, Col. Mohamed Dhagaweyne, commander of the army’s 21st Division, has tried to lower tensions despite receiving direct orders from military headquarters in Mogadishu to lock down the city’s security.
Dhagaweyne strongly favours dialogue to prevent an armed confrontation that could fracture Galmudug’s communities, sources familiar with the commander’s thinking said.
He has explicitly warned that a military solution could permanently damage the state’s fragile political process, unravel local cohesion and erase hard-won security gains against insurgents.
The broader risk for Villa Somalia is that Galmudug’s heavily armed political factions may prove far harder to subdue than those in South West State.
Political observers note that Mogadishu cannot easily engineer a predictable election in Galmudug without Qoor-Qoor’s cooperation. Conversely, leaving him in power threatens to fatally undermine the JSP candidate favoured by the presidency.
For President Mohamud, the coming days will likely determine whether Galmudug becomes another swift federal takeover or an entrenched crisis that forces Villa Somalia to weigh the true cost of its rapid political overhaul.
