Baidoa (Somalia Today) – Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is facing one of the toughest political tests of his current tenure as a deepening rupture with South West state leader Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed gathers pace.
The confrontation with the regional leader, known as Laftagareen, has opened a new front in the country’s widening battle over constitutional change, elections, and federal power.
The standoff comes at a volatile moment for Somalia, just days after parliament approved disputed constitutional amendments on March 5. Hassan Sheikh then signed them into law on March 8.
Critics say the changes could reshape the electoral calendar and alter the balance of power between Mogadishu and the federal member states.
Regional officials, lawmakers, and political sources say the immediate trigger was Laftagareen’s decision to withdraw support for the federal government’s constitutional reform drive.
He also withdrew backing for local council elections due in mid-April in states aligned with Mogadishu.
Power struggle
Sources told Somalia Today that Villa Somalia has since stepped up political pressure on Baidoa.
In response, the South West administration has tightened security in Baidoa and other towns, fearing an organised effort to weaken or even replace its leadership.
The row has quickly moved beyond procedure and turned into a broader power struggle.
Political sources in both Mogadishu and Baidoa say federal officials have tried to peel away local centres of authority, challenge revenue streams, and reshape the regional security chain of command.
South West leaders accuse ministers close to the presidency of interfering in internal affairs and fuelling rival political camps.
While Somalia Today could not independently verify those allegations, they reflect the deep mistrust now shaping relations between the two sides.
What makes the split especially significant is that, until recently, Laftagareen ranked among Hassan Sheikh’s most dependable regional allies.
For months, he broadly backed the president’s push to move Somalia away from the clan-based indirect model towards wider popular voting.
Constitutional gamble
That project gathered momentum after Mogadishu adopted a 2024 law restoring universal suffrage.
It gained further traction after residents of the capital voted in municipal polls in December 2025, the first such direct vote in Mogadishu since 1969.
But the reform drive remains fiercely disputed, with opposition figures warning that the timetable is unrealistic and could end up delaying national polls.
The dispute has sharpened because of the calendar.
Opposition figures grouped in the Somali Future Council argue that, under the 2012 provisional constitution, parliament’s mandate expires on April 14 and the president’s on May 15.
Supporters of the new constitutional order say the revised framework creates a different legal basis.
However, analysts say the practical effect remains the same: Somalia is heading into a dangerous period without consensus on how to hold the next elections.
Recent reports suggest the amendments could push back planned elections, fuelling debate over whether they effectively extend Hassan Sheikh’s time in office.
Baidoa in focus
In that sense, the battle over South West goes far beyond one regional presidency.
Baidoa is one of Somalia’s most politically sensitive centres, and it has long exposed the fault lines in the federal system.
Laftagareen himself came to power in a 2018 state election won by Mogadishu’s preferred candidate.
His victory followed weeks of tension and bloodshed in Baidoa after former Al-Shabaab deputy Mukhtar Robow was excluded from the race.
Many in South West saw the federal government’s role as decisive, and analysts warned that any perception of Mogadishu imposing a regional leader could inflame instability.
That history now hangs heavily over the present crisis.
Political sources say Mogadishu had hoped Laftagareen would publicly endorse the latest constitutional changes and help carry the federal election project into South West.
Instead, his refusal leaves the presidency facing the prospect that another important federal member state could drift into open resistance.
Regional diplomacy
Regional diplomacy has added another layer of intrigue.
Hassan Sheikh travelled to Djibouti this week for a trilateral meeting with Djibouti’s Ismail Omar Guelleh and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Somalia and Ethiopia are continuing to repair ties after a year-long crisis triggered by Addis Ababa’s January 2024 memorandum with Somaliland over sea access.
The two countries agreed in December to pursue commercial arrangements that would give landlocked Ethiopia access to the sea while respecting Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Abiy later visited Mogadishu in February 2025 as the thaw deepened.
Against that backdrop, political actors are reading any internal struggle in Baidoa through the lens of regional influence and security leverage.
Security fears grow
The standoff is unfolding as Somalia remains under heavy militant pressure.
Al-Shabaab still controls swathes of the countryside despite the presence of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which replaced the previous AU force in January 2025.
US Africa Command said it carried out an air strike against Al-Shabaab on March 11, underlining the continuing insecurity around the capital and much of south-central Somalia.
In that climate, diplomats and analysts have repeatedly warned that a political fracture at the centre could distract from the fight against the insurgency.
Those fears are not abstract.
Somalia’s last major dispute over term extensions in 2021 split sections of the security forces, triggered armed clashes in Mogadishu, and forced tens of thousands of people to flee.
That memory is one reason opposition groups, regional leaders, and international partners are watching the current constitutional dispute so nervously.
For now, neither camp appears ready to retreat.
Political sources say South West figures are closing ranks around Laftagareen.
Meanwhile, Mogadishu seems determined not to let a pivotal regional ally break away at a moment when the entire federal electoral project is under strain.
With the April and May mandate deadlines fast approaching and no national consensus in sight, the struggle over Baidoa is quickly becoming the clearest test of whether Somalia’s constitutional gamble will strengthen the state or push it into another cycle of confrontation.
