Saturday, July 4, 2026

UAE quits OPEC and OPEC+ in blow to Saudi-led oil alliance

By Mohamed Bashir

Dubai (Somalia Today) — The United Arab Emirates said Tuesday it had quit OPEC and OPEC+, a dramatic rupture that deals a major blow to the Saudi-led oil alliance as the Iran war convulses global energy markets and strains Gulf unity.

The decision removes one of OPEC’s most influential Gulf producers from a group that has long tried to show a united front despite disputes over production quotas, market share and regional power politics.

The UAE, a close US ally and regional business hub, joined OPEC in 1967 and became one of the few producers with the money, infrastructure and ambition to expand output sharply in the coming years.

“This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile,” the UAE statement said.

“During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all,” it added.

“However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates.”

Its exit comes at a moment of acute pressure for oil-exporting states.

Iranian threats and attacks are disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas.

Shock exit

The move is a setback for Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, which has used OPEC+ cooperation with Russia and other producers to manage supply and support prices.

It could also deepen uncertainty in energy markets already shaken by the war, as traders assess whether the UAE will now raise production more aggressively outside cartel quotas.

Abu Dhabi has long argued that its heavy investment in new capacity should bring higher output allowances.

Those tensions have repeatedly surfaced inside OPEC+, where production baselines determine how much each country may pump under collective supply agreements.

The UAE’s withdrawal, therefore, strikes at both the political and technical foundations of the alliance.

Other producers have left OPEC before, including Qatar, which quit to focus on gas, and Angola, which left after a dispute over its production target. B

ut the UAE’s exit carries greater weight because of its spare capacity, financial strength and strategic role in Gulf security.

Gulf anger

The announcement followed unusually sharp criticism from Abu Dhabi over what it sees as a weak Arab and Gulf response to Iranian attacks during the war.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, said Gulf states had helped each other logistically but failed to show the political and military resolve the crisis demanded.

“The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically,” Gargash said at the Gulf Influencers Forum on Monday.

“I expect this weak stance from the Arab League, and I am not surprised by it, but I haven’t expected it from the Cooperation Council, and I am surprised by it,” he added.

His comments reflected growing frustration in the UAE, which has faced repeated Iranian attacks during the war and believes its partners have not done enough to deter Tehran or protect shared Gulf infrastructure.

Gulf leaders met in Saudi Arabia this week to discuss a joint response, but the UAE’s decision suggests Abu Dhabi is ready to act alone when it believes collective frameworks no longer serve its interests.

Win for Trump 

The UAE’s break with OPEC also hands a political win to US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly accused the oil cartel of driving up prices.

Trump has described OPEC as “ripping off the rest of the world” and has linked US military protection for Gulf states to energy costs, arguing that Washington defends OPEC members while they “exploit this by imposing high oil prices”.

The Iran war has intensified that pressure. Oil prices have surged since the conflict began, while Gulf economies have absorbed damage to energy infrastructure, higher shipping costs and fears that Hormuz could remain vulnerable to further attacks.

For the UAE, the exit marks more than an energy policy shift. It signals a broader recalibration of its alliances at a time when the Gulf’s security order is under severe strain and old assumptions about collective protection no longer seem secure.

For OPEC, the loss of Abu Dhabi is a warning that internal disputes once managed behind closed doors are now breaking into the open, just as the global economy looks to oil producers for stability.

Mohamed Bashir
Mohamed Bashir
Mohamed Bashir Abdirahman is a Senior Writer at Somalia Today based in Washington, D.C., with more than 15 years of journalism experience. As former VOA journalist, and media consultant, he covers geopolitics, security, governance, and international relations.

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