Mogadishu (Somalia Today) – The United Arab Emirates is working to persuade several countries to recognise Somalia’s breakaway northwestern region of Somaliland, Somali diplomatic and intelligence sources said.
The sources told Somalia Today that the UAE has been lobbying Eswatini, Argentina, Zambia and the Dominican Republic to recognise Somaliland, months after Israel became the first country to formally recognise the region in December 2025.
They said any move could come on or before May 18, when Somaliland marks the day it says it restored its independence from the rest of Somalia.
Somalia considers Somaliland part of its territory and has repeatedly warned that any foreign recognition would violate its sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity.
Somaliland declared independence in 1991 after Somalia’s central government collapsed, but it remained unrecognised by any United Nations member state until Israel’s move last year.
Recognition push
The Somali sources said Eswatini and Argentina were seen as the countries most likely to move first, although they cautioned that no final decision had been confirmed.
Eswatini, a small monarchy in southern Africa, has long maintained formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, making it one of the few countries in the world, and the only one in Africa, to recognise Taipei.
Taiwan and Somaliland, both facing strong opposition from larger states that claim them as part of their territory, opened representative offices in each other’s capitals in 2020.
Somali officials believe Abu Dhabi is trying to use that precedent to push Eswatini towards a similar step on Somaliland.
The sources said the UAE had promised major financial support to Eswatini if it recognised Somaliland, although they did not provide details of the offer.
Argentina is also under close watch in Mogadishu because of President Javier Milei’s strong support for Israel and his willingness to break with traditional diplomatic positions.
Milei has made pro-Israel policy a central part of his foreign agenda and has pledged to move Argentina’s embassy to Jerusalem. Somali officials believe Abu Dhabi is working with Tel Aviv to persuade Buenos Aires to recognise Somaliland.
The sources also said Argentina’s severe economic difficulties could create an opening for the UAE to exert pressure or offer financial incentives.
AU resistance
The Somali sources said they had less information about the Dominican Republic’s position.
But they said Zambia was unlikely to recognise Somaliland despite UAE pressure, mainly because it is a member of the African Union, which has strongly opposed any step that could weaken the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states.
The AU has repeatedly backed Somalia’s unity and rejected recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. African governments have traditionally resisted secessionist claims because of fears that redrawing borders could trigger wider instability across the continent.
Somalia has accused the UAE of pursuing a hostile policy towards Mogadishu and of working to weaken the Somali state by supporting separatist political arrangements.
Relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply after Israel recognised Somaliland in December 2025, a move Somali officials believe Abu Dhabi helped facilitate.
On January 12, Somalia cut ties with the UAE and cancelled all agreements with Abu Dhabi, including deals linked to defence, security cooperation and ports.
Mogadishu said the decision aimed to defend Somalia’s sovereignty and national unity. The UAE has not publicly accepted Somalia’s allegations.
Abu Dhabi signal
The sources said there was also a possibility that the UAE itself could eventually recognise Somaliland, although they believe Abu Dhabi is more likely to wait for several other countries to move first.
Speculation increased after Amjad Taha, an Emirati political analyst who describes himself on X as an expert in strategic and political affairs in the Middle East, wrote on May 2: “Beautiful democratic Somaliland will very soon have an Arab ambassador and an embassy.”
The comment fuelled suspicion in Mogadishu that Abu Dhabi may be preparing a diplomatic step, although it did not identify the Arab country involved.
The latest developments also follow a visit by Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro to the UAE on April 23. Somaliland officials said he travelled to Abu Dhabi on an official invitation and stayed there for several days.
Somali officials believe the visit was part of the UAE’s wider efforts to strengthen political and diplomatic coordination with Hargeisa after Israel’s recognition.
The UAE has built some of its strongest links in Somalia through Somaliland, where Dubai-owned DP World signed a major deal in 2016 to develop and manage Berbera port.
The port has become central to Abu Dhabi’s strategic interests in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, giving the UAE a commercial foothold near one of the world’s most important maritime routes.
Somali officials believe Abu Dhabi’s recognition push is not only diplomatic, but also tied to its long-term interest in protecting its economic and strategic position in Berbera.
Internal UAE strains
However, internal strains within the UAE could slow any direct Emirati move on Somaliland.
Unverified reports circulating on social media and in some Western media have suggested that senior figures in Sharjah and Dubai are increasingly uneasy with the direction set by UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
The reports pointed in particular to his foreign interventions in several countries, his handling of the Iran war and his close alignment with Israel.
The debate has been sharpened by a controversial tweet from Dubai ruler and UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who criticised “officials obsessed with personal success”.
The remarks triggered unusually public responses from federal ministers on social media, fuelling speculation that political signalling between the UAE’s main centres of power, particularly Abu Dhabi and Dubai, is increasingly moving into the open.
The reports claimed that influential figures inside the federation had warned that continued centralisation of power in Abu Dhabi, combined with costly overseas entanglements, could deepen internal divisions and fuel demands for greater autonomy within the UAE’s seven-emirate system.
Somali officials believe those pressures could make Abu Dhabi more cautious about becoming the first Arab government to recognise Somaliland, potentially giving Mogadishu more time to mobilise diplomatic opposition before any wider recognition campaign gains momentum.
Territorial reality
Somaliland’s case for recognition rests heavily on its claim to the borders of the former British Somaliland protectorate, which united with Italian-administered Somalia in 1960 to form the Somali Republic.
But that claim has come under growing pressure on the ground.
Somaliland lost control of much of Sool after its forces were driven from Las Anod in 2023 following months of conflict with local clan forces opposed to Hargeisa’s rule.
Parts of Sanaag are also contested, while the new pro-Somalia North Eastern State administration has emerged in territory that Somaliland has long claimed as part of its own.
Awdal, in Somaliland’s west, has also seen strong pro-Somalia sentiment and growing opposition to Hargeisa’s secessionist project.
Somali officials say those realities mean foreign recognition alone would not resolve the central question of territorial control.
They argue that even if more countries recognise Somaliland, the political and physical map on the ground could make it difficult for any recognised Somaliland state to operate within the full colonial borders it claims.
