Addis-Ababa (Caasimada Online) – A deepening feud between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates across the Horn of Africa is overshadowing this weekend’s African Union summit, with diplomats warning that the rivalry is forcing the continent’s leaders into a high-stakes diplomatic balancing act.
While the summit’s official agenda focuses on regional integration and security, the corridors of the AU headquarters are dominated by talk of a widening rift between the two Gulf powerhouses that threatens to destabilise an already volatile region.
What began as a tactical divergence in Yemen has metastasised into a sprawling proxy struggle spanning the Red Sea, fueling conflicts from the streets of Khartoum to the coastline of Somalia.
“Saudi Arabia has woken up and realised that it might lose the Red Sea,” a senior African diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “They have been sleeping all along while the UAE was doing its thing in the Horn.”
In recent years, the UAE has established itself as a decisive power broker in the region – encompassing Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti – through multi-billion-dollar investments, robust diplomacy, and discreet military support.
Diplomats say Riyadh, previously more low-profile, is now aggressively constructing a counter-alliance that includes heavyweight partners Egypt and Turkey, as well as Qatar.
‘Compelled to choose’
The rivalry, initially focused on the strategic shipping lanes of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, has pushed deep inland.
“Today it is in Somalia, but it is also playing out in Sudan, the Sahel, and elsewhere,” the senior diplomat said.
While the region’s conflicts have strong local drivers, the Gulf involvement is compelling countries, regions, and even local warlords to pick a side.
Michael Woldemariam, an expert on the Horn of Africa at the University of Maryland, said regional actors, including Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), have grown uneasy with the UAE’s “muscular” foreign policy.
“Saudis may seek to limit or curtail the UAE in the Horn, but it remains to see how that will play out,” he said. “The UAE has a lot of leverage across the region – it has this expeditionary military presence and dense financial linkages.”
Saudi officials privately argue that UAE activities in Yemen and the Horn threaten their national security.
Senior Emirati officials, however, maintain their strategy strengthens states against extremists – a claim challenged by UN experts and Western officials who argue it has empowered authoritarian leaders.
Flashpoint Somalia
Tensions have reached a boiling point in Somalia following Israel’s move to recognise the independence bid of the breakaway region of Somaliland – a development that Mogadishu blames on Emirati influence.
Somalia has severed all ties with Abu Dhabi in response, accusing the UAE of undermining its sovereignty.
In a rapid geopolitical pivot, Mogadishu has since signed a defence agreement with Qatar, while Turkey has deployed fighter jets to the Somali capital in a show of force.
The friction is also evident between the AU host Ethiopia, and neighbouring Eritrea. The two nations, which have been on the verge of renewed war for months, are increasingly aligned with opposing Gulf patrons.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki recently visited Saudi Arabia, a trip analysts viewed as a signal of Riyadh’s backing against Ethiopia, which has deepened its economic and security ties with the UAE.
Proxy war in Sudan
Nowhere is the divide starker than in Sudan, where the war between the army and paramilitary forces has become a magnet for foreign interference.
Nine diplomats and experts interviewed for this report confirmed that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are backing opposing sides in the conflict.
Sources accuse the UAE of providing logistical support to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In contrast, states aligned with Saudi Arabia largely back the army (SAF).
Egypt, a key Saudi ally, has deployed Turkish-made drones along its border with Sudan to strike RSF positions, security officials said.
Meanwhile, analysts indicate that Ethiopia is facilitating UAE support for the paramilitaries. Reuters reported this week that Ethiopia is hosting a base in its western region where the RSF recruits and trains fighters. Ethiopia has not commented on the report.
‘Broken into pieces’
Across the region, Saudi Arabia has often preferred to act through allies and proxies rather than engage in direct intervention, experts say.
However, the risks for African nations are acute.
“Even those actors in the Horn who were alarmed by UAE influence may be cautious about how much they want to be caught up in a brawl between these two Gulf powers,” Woldemariam said.
Alex Rondos, the EU’s former special representative for the region, warned that the Horn of Africa risks becoming a subsidiary arena for Middle East rivalries.
“Do the Saudis and UAE … fully grasp the implications?” he said. “Will the Horn of Africa allow itself to be broken into pieces by these foreign rivalries and their African accomplices?”
While the AU summit agenda includes the war in the Democratic Republic of Congo and spreading insurgencies in the Sahel, diplomats say the Gulf rift is the issue most leaders are trying to avoid – yet cannot ignore.
